DMK’s egregious outbursts that belittle Sanatan Dharma, Hindi, people of Hindi-speaking states, Hindu gods and beliefs, changing the rules of worship procedure in the temples of TN with its Hindu Religious Endowment Department, delimitation exercise expected in 2026, and similar issues that harbour fissiparous tendencies (such as calling the central government ONRIYA ARASU in Tamil, indirectly indicating that India is not a Union of India but the United States of India) continue unabatedly.
Although these outlandish outbursts have been there since the 1930s with the DravidarKazhakam of E. V. Ramasamy Naicker, followed by Annadurai and Karunanidhi of the DMK, they virtually disappeared during the participation of the DMK in the central government dispensation between 1999 and 2013 (1999–2004 with the BJP and 2004–2013 with Congress).
It resurfaced more aggressively in 2021 once DMK came to power in TN, with the disappointment that with the BJP becoming a party in pole position, the chances of becoming part of the central dispensation have been dim. Apart from the outbursts of Udayanidhi, son and minister in the TN government, Sanatana Dharma is like dengue, and it must be eradicated with no traces or “2G” A Raja calling Hinduism is like HIV and leprosy, DMK MP Senthil Kumar’s speech in Lok Sabha that disparaged MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan voters as the people who belonged to the cow-mutra states to the latest outburst of “BSNL resources swindling” Dayanidhi, who stated that UP and Bihar people have been cleaning the toilets in TN.
Calling North Indians “beda-biters” is another disparaging remark from the recent past. The above instances are only the tip of the iceberg.
DMK is not naïve enough to understand that its outbursts not only dents the chances of Congress in the states of MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, HP, Uttarakhand, Haryana, and Karnataka but also dents the chances of Samajwadi Party in UP, JDU and RJD in Bihar, TMC in West Bengal, AAP in Delhi and Punjab, and Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra.
Congress is an insignificant partner in TN in the DMK alliance, and even if the INDI alliance breaks the alliance with DMK in TN, except for a couple of percentage points of vote share owned by Congress, DMK’s alliance’s core support base along with other small alliance partners may remain intact.
The core support base of the DMK’s alliance is made up of Abrahamic voters. Although Muslims and Christians constitute 5.9% and 6.1% of the total population in TN as per the 2011 census, the actual population of Christians may be about 14% as sizable Scheduled Caste members practice Christianity but have been mentioning their religion as Hinduism in records to enjoy reservation benefits and hence accounted as Hindus in the census.
Although SC Christians form the single largest caste block in Christianity, the intermediate castes (who enjoy backward class status) have never allowed them in various Christian forums and clergy positions. Despite this, SC Christians support DMK along with intermediate-caste Christians.
With this 20% vote share as the basis, DMK’s core supporters of 10% and the vote share of alliance partners of about 3% from CPI, CPM, VCK, and other small parties, about 50% of the TN government employees and their families supporting DMK, which forms about 4% of the vote share in TN (Earlier, about 80%–90% of the TN government employees supported DMK; with the TN government failing to implement the poll promise of introducing the old pension scheme, DMK lost a significant vote base of the TN government employees), the alliance would get about 35% of the votes, even without Congress.
The vote-cutters take away about 15% of the total votes in TN. With no alliance between AIADMK and BJP, DMK is extremely confident that it could get most of the seats in the first-past-the-post system by securing 35% of the total votes in TN. Either AIADMK or BJP should get more than 35% of the vote to push DMK to the second position. Even though 65% of the total voters may not vote for the DMK alliance, there may be no consolidation of votes against the DMK in the absence of a bipolar contest.
All these outbursts by DMK have been aimed at consolidating their established vote bank and not acquiring additional votes. The moot question is: if the INDI alliance fare poorly in the 2024 general elections, it will not have enough numbers to form a government.
Does the DMK not know that in such a scenario, the DMK has no chance of being a part of the ruling dispensation at the center? Even before the December 2023 elections for five state assembly elections, DMK knew that there were fewer prospects for the INDI alliance to get a majority in the 2024 general elections. It got confirmed with the results of the MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh state elections.
What DMK has been adopting is a prisoner’s dilemma, a game theory in economics. When the two members of a criminal gang are arrested, police know that they don’t have evidence to convict the pair of their criminal activities. However, they knew that the pair had committed the crime and wanted to sentence them.
Both the prisoners are in different cells and have no communication with each other, and hence they are not aware of the Faustian bargain the police planned. As per the Faustian bargain, if the first prisoner gives testimony against the second one and the second one does not give testimony against the first prisoner, the first prisoner will get a sentence, and vice versa.
If both do not give testimony against each other, both will be released. If both give testimony against each other, both will be sentenced.
Unlike the Faustian bargain of the two prisoners, there is no disconnect in communication between DMK and other INDI parties. DMK has been resorting to Faustian bargaining by resorting to outbursts (equivalent to giving testimony against other alliance parties of the INDI alliance) that will affect the prospects of others in the alliance, including Congress.
This has been done in the hope that Congress will not resort to outbursts against DMK, as Congress believes till now that the benefit in terms of seats that it can win from TN in alliance with DMK outweighs the seats it would gain in the direct contest against the BJP in other states, even when it kicks out DMK from the alliance.
However, this is not a two-prisoner’s dilemma; rather, it is a multi-prisoner’s dilemma. Congress may not resort to testimony against DMK, but other parties, which are at the receiving end, may give testimony against DMK and save their face. The recent retort of Tejaswi Yadav of RJD is an example. It is to be seen whether the INDI alliance may remain as the alliance of 26 parties or become an alliance between Congress and DMK, with others parting ways citing one or another excuse in the months leading to the 2024 general elections.
Ramakrishnan T S is the author is a political and public policy expert
