With less than two weeks until the 2024 US presidential election, a new national poll by The New York Times and Siena College reveals a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and former President Donald Trump. This latest survey shows Harris and Trump in a statistical tie, each receiving 48% of the popular vote.
The findings could be troubling for the Harris-Walz campaign, as earlier polling by the same institutions gave Harris a slight 3-point lead over Trump. The recent dip has fueled predictions that Harris may lose the popular vote a first for a Democratic nominee in four election cycles. Democrats have maintained a strong track record with popular vote wins in seven of the last eight presidential elections.
Polling Points and Swing State Impact
Harris’s campaign launch initially saw speculation that she could secure a popular vote win but potentially face challenges in the Electoral College due to close polling in seven critical swing states. The latest poll, however, indicates that Harris has yet to build a substantial national lead, which may hinder her ability to decisively capture these swing states. The slim 48-48 result in The New York Times-Siena poll falls within the margin of error, suggesting a tight race nationwide and especially in battleground regions.
Adding to concerns for the Democrats, only 28% of poll respondents believe the country is moving in the right direction a sentiment that could negatively impact Harris’s standing, as she is part of the current administration.
The poll, conducted between October 20 and October 23, surveyed 2,516 registered voters and has a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points. With both candidates neck-and-neck and polling in the swing states remaining intensely close, this election could prove one of the tightest in US history. All eyes now turn to Election Day, as voters await whether the nation will see its first woman president in Harris.
