New Delhi: Congress party has faced setbacks with continuous defeats in vidhan sabha elections in many states. Following the BJP’s victory in Delhi, there are signs that the opposition may face significant disintegration, with Congress likely to bear the brunt. This upcoming political phase will be a critical test for Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, shaping their future and the party’s direction. The results in Delhi have left Congress allies, including RJD, SP, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, anxious about their own political futures.
Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), now more focused on Congress than BJP, will target Congress heavily, particularly with the upcoming challenge of securing Punjab. Kejriwal has taken charge of the situation himself, summoning all Punjab ministers and MLAs to Delhi. AAP aims to corner Congress in Delhi, sending a strong message ahead of Punjab elections. As a result, Congress will likely intensify its attacks on Kejriwal, setting up a fierce rivalry between AAP and Congress. This could lead to AAP distancing itself from the INDIA Alliance. Similarly, TMC leader Mamata Banerjee, who has always been critical of Rahul Gandhi, may also shift her stance, contributing to the growing fractures within the opposition.
As Congress continues to lose ground, Mamata Banerjee is expected to distance herself from the party. Rahul Gandhi, Congress’s leader, appears to be shifting toward a different kind of politics, which has raised questions. Surprisingly, ahead of the Bihar elections, Rahul has chosen to focus on West Bengal, even though Bihar will go to the polls first. His main challenge should be securing the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar, as RJD and other allies are gradually sidelining Congress.
Rahul’s decision to rally against Mamata Banerjee’s government in Bengal is unexpected, as it could further strain relations with the TMC, which is already uneasy with Congress. Adding to the complexity, Kerala elections are due early next year, where Congress faces direct competition from the Left parties. A loss in Kerala for the third consecutive time would significantly weaken Congress, especially in the region, similar to the situation in Uttar Pradesh. This could also result in the Left and Mamata Banerjee distancing themselves from Congress, which would jeopardize the INDIA alliance.
The opposition’s unity is also under threat in other key states. In Maharashtra, questions are being raised about the future of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance, with Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray facing challenges. Both leaders are concerned about the future of their political families, as their parties struggle to maintain a strong presence. In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party is grappling with setbacks in recent by-elections, especially the crushing defeat in the Milkipur seat. This has led the SP to reconsider its alliance with Congress, leaving the relationship more fragile than ever.
In this uncertain political environment, the path forward for Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi is unclear. Priyanka, who represents Kerala in Parliament, faces her own test after a disappointing performance in Uttar Pradesh. If she cannot secure a win in Kerala, it will label her as a failure in the eyes of the public. Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, is struggling with internal party dynamics, as his refusal to make key decisions regarding the organization has led to a weakening of Congress’s structure.
The growing discontent within Congress, combined with the challenges in Bihar, Kerala, and other states, signals a tough road ahead for both Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. If Congress follows the path of independence or “Ekala Chalo,” it is unlikely to bring about any positive change. The lack of unity and strategic direction in the party could further harm its political prospects.