Other than the criminal probe being conducted by the Central Bureau of Investigation into the alleged wrong doings while awarding liquor contracts to private players in the capital, there are some other dimensions of the AAP-BJP face off which cannot be ignored either. The AAP has emerged as a force both in Delhi and in Punjab and is seeking to make inroads in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, which go to polls later this year. Traditionally, the electoral battle in Himachal and Gujarat has always been between the Congress and the BJP and currently the two States are being administered by the BJP governments. However, if AAP gets into the act and joins the election face-off, the impact of the third party’s joining the fray would have certain ramifications that could influence the final outcome. The BJP and AAP may have differences amongst themselves, but their political objective is similar, to make India Congress-Mukt. Therefore, it is evident that if the AAP makes it a triangular fight in the two States, it is obvious that it may not be able to dislodge the BJP. However, it is a matter of speculation that their electoral debut would certainly harm the Congress, which otherwise too, for reasons which pertain to its lack of leadership and organizational structure, is heading towards self-created extinction. The Congress has a fairly good chance in Himachal and is expected to do well in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan next year. But once the AAP is there in the triangular fight, the BJP would be the beneficiary. This assessment is essentially based on the assumption that the anti-BJP vote which would have gone in favour of the Congress, would now get divided between the Congress and AAP in Himachal and Gujarat. Thus, many political veterans who believe in conspiracy theories, even if they seem far-fetched, are of the opinion, that there could be a secret understanding at some level amongst certain functionaries of the AAP and BJP. AAP’s opponents have always accused it of being the `B’ team of the RSS, something which has always been vehemently denied. In the current political scenario, Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar has emerged as the principal challenger to the Prime Minister for the 2024 polls, relegating both Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar in this supposed race. Incidentally Nitish is from the Janata Dal background with socialist roots and thus his being there also implies that leaders who did their apprenticeship in the Congress, were being eased out of the leadership position of a possible federal front. In this scenario, Delhi deputy Chief Minister, Manish Sisodia, whose arrest in the excise case, appears to be a distinct possibility, has declared that the Parliamentary polls would see Arvind Kejriwal coming on top to face Narendra Modi. As things stand today, Modi is the unquestioned leader of the country and there does not seem to be any threat to his supreme position. In this entire political narrative, the Congress is the one which is getting diminished and has reasons to worry. If it is unable to win Himachal and Karnataka to begin with, the writing would be on the wall so far as the future of the grand old party goes. So far as AAP goes, Kejriwal has evolved into an astute political player and would always play a significant role in the future politics of this country.
