Politically speaking, the year ahead is going to be the big build up for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The semi-finals are scheduled for the year end – that is state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh where we will see a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress. While these are not indicative of the national mood, for very often the party that has won these states has lost the centre, these will be a good dipstick into the state of both the Congress and the BJP. First, let us take a look at what is at stake for the BJP. As far as the BJP is concerned, both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have strong regional leaders in place, who owe their rise to the AdvaniVajpayee era of the BJP. It is no secret within the BJP that the Modi-Shah duo would like to replace Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundara Raje Scindia with someone whom they can control, and who owes their rise solely to the PM. Infact both Vasundhara and Shivraj also have a good equation with the RSS. There is buzz of a cabinet reshuffle around ‘makar sankranti’ that could see Chouhan and Raje shift to Delhi but this seems to be more in the realm of speculation. Shivraj Singh Chouhan still retains his popularity in the state as does Vasundhara and both would not be happy to leave their fiefdoms to be a rubber stamp in some corner office in Lutyens Delhi. Why stoke factional politics on election eve? As far as the state of Chhattisgarh is concerned the BJP does not have a tall leader to take on Bhupesh Baghel. One is not quite sure if ex-Chief Minister Raman Singh would be given another lease of life, but so far no move has been made in that direction. In all probability Modi would like to fight the campaign on the strength of his own popularity. To sum it up, as far as the BJP is concerned winning the states would be more of an inner party checklist, to see if the PM-Shah duo can still hold sway over factional politics in the state and assert their writ over the ambitions of powerful regional leaders. Or will they allow Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to go the Himachal way? As far as 2024 is concerned, whether the BJP wins or loses these states, the campaign will be fought on the PM’s name and brand equity. And that is still a very strong card to play. Now the Congress, like the BJP, faces a divided house in Rajasthan and so far the Gandhis have not been able to dislodge the powerful Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot. Inner party discipline works only if the Centre is strong, and that is what Rahul Gandhi is trying to do with his Bharat Jodo yatra. It is only when the brand Gandhi is strengthened that Rahul will be able to enforce his dictat within the party which has come under many a challenge of late. Rahul’s yatra is getting the headlines and traction though it is still to win elections. The Congress is pretty hopeful that the state elections in Karnataka (which are due in early 2023) will reap some dividends that can be shared by both Kharge and Rahul. That will give the party some confidence for the semifinals at the end of the year; and if they are able to win two of these three states, it would be a revitalised Rahul that meets PM Modi on the 2024 campaign field. The year before the polls will also see both the national parties getting their narratives in order, especially the government that has the advantage of the playing field. For one, it can use the Budget as a promissory note for the next five years. In the meantime there are the challenges of a covid-struck economy, jobless growth and an aggressive China at our borders. The year ahead is going to be a challenging one, in more ways than one. For both the government and the opposition.
