AP Survey Tracks Delegate Support in Democratic Nominee Race: Who Will Secure the Nomination?

President Joe Biden has withdrawn from his reelection bid and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to challenge Republican Donald Trump in the upcoming November election. This unexpected move has disrupted what was previously a straightforward Democratic nomination process.

To gauge the next steps, The Associated Press is surveying nearly 4,000 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention to find out which candidate they plan to support or if they are still undecided. The results will be updated regularly.

As of Monday evening, the survey shows that Kamala Harris has gained support from over 2,500 delegates, surpassing the 1,976 needed to secure the nomination on the first ballot. This makes her the clear frontrunner, although the survey is not an official count and only indicates party sentiment.

According to Democratic Party rules, delegates can support any candidate and can change their minds until the official vote to select a nominee later this summer. The convention is set for August 19-22 in Chicago, but the party may conduct a virtual roll call to nominate a candidate before the convention.

The AP survey involves contacting delegates via phone, email, social media, or personal interviews. Public statements of support for candidates are also included in the tally. State party confirmations of delegate support are counted as well.

Typically, candidates win delegates through primaries and caucuses, with those delegates pledged to support them at the convention. However, delegates are only pledged to support a candidate as a matter of “good conscience,” and historically, they rarely break their pledges.

Biden had secured enough delegates by March 12 to become the presumptive nominee, with support from 3,896 out of 3,949 eligible delegates. His exit means delegates must now choose a new candidate, and Biden cannot transfer his delegates to Harris or anyone else. Biden’s delegates are free to support any candidate, preventing anyone from becoming the “presumptive nominee” until a majority of pledged delegates is secured through the party’s official process.

To be eligible for the nomination, a candidate must submit a petition signed by at least 300 delegates, with no more than 50 from any one state, and each delegate can only sign one petition. No delegates in the AP survey indicated support for any candidate other than Harris.

In past campaigns, the AP surveyed over 700 superdelegates, who automatically serve as convention delegates by virtue of their party positions. Superdelegates include sitting Democratic governors, U.S. senators, representatives, DNC members, former presidents, and past DNC chairs. Previously, superdelegates voted alongside pledged delegates in the first round, but rule changes after the 2016 election prevent them from voting until the second round. If no candidate has a clear majority, the AP will survey superdelegates as well.