New challenges as speculations swirl around SP-RLD alliance

Uttar Pradesh has been abuzz with discussions around the Samajwadi Party’s (SP) alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in the state. Each day throws up events that suggest that this alliance might not last much longer. Although leaders from both parties have appeared together during the Monsoon Session of the UP Legislative Assembly, RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary was conspicuously absent due to the allocation of seats between the two allied parties. Chaudhary’s absence was particularly notable since it came on a day when the INDIA alliance faced its first test in the Rajya Sabha. This absence led to shifting perceptions about the possibilities in Uttar Pradesh politics.
The party’s spokesperson Anil Dubey, however, clarified Chaudhary’s absence in the Rajya Sabha, stating that he couldn’t attend due to his wife’s health issues, adding that it should not be considered from a political perspective. Following Dubey’s statement, attempts seem to be made to temporarily halt political discussions for some time, but political observers are looking at it from a different angle. They believe in the current scenario in Uttar Pradesh could be an effort by the RLD to showcase its significance, especially in light of the Lok Sabha elections. The ongoing tensions between SP and RLD have been observed since the municipal elections in the state. During this election, candidates from both parties had contested against each other; later when the Opposition held its first meeting in Patna, Jayant Chaudhary remained absent.
Chaudhary’s absence has been interpreted in various ways, but when he was invited by the Congress for a meeting in Bengaluru, he attended alongside SP president Akhilesh Yadav. This clearly indicated that Jayant Chaudhary would remain in alliance with Akhilesh Yadav due to his association with the Congress. However, when the time came for the test of the INDIA alliance in the Rajya Sabha, the RLD leader was nowhere to be seen. In reality, the party is claiming 10 to 12 seats out of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats. Jayant Chaudhary aims to secure seats from Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Amroha, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Hathras, Fatehpur Sikri, Mathura, and Baghpat. He is currently trying to build pressure in this regard. If he receives the seats he wants as per his preferences, he will stay with the INDIA bloc. However, if things do not work out, he also wants to keep his options open with the BJP.
Sources claim that Jayant Chaudhary and the BJP’s top leadership have engaged in multiple discussions regarding this matter. Just as the BJP brought Om Prakash Rajbhar, the president of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, into the NDA fold to consolidate Purvanchal voters, they are considering a similar strategy with the RLD in Western Uttar Pradesh. In the 2019 elections, the party suffered losses in both Western and Eastern Uttar Pradesh. Excluding Mainpuri and Rae Bareli, all seats the party lost were from these regions. Hence, Rajbhar’s influence on the voters of Purvanchal and a possible compromise with Jat voters in the western region could lead the BJP to gain a few seats. Considering this, Jayant Chaudhary is focused on enhancing his political significance.