Assembly polls’ results in five states will be a precursor to 2024 finals

The Congress and the BJP are vigorously campaigning in five states, making ambitious promises in their manifestos, including cash transfers, subsidies for farmers, free electricity units, and various benefits. While Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are currently being ruled by Congress, Madhya Pradesh is being governed by the BJP. While Telangana has a regional party Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in power, Mizoram has a coalition government, run by Mizo National Front (MNF).

In Telangana, where KCR has been in power since its formation, both the Congress and the BJP are making efforts to gain control. KCR, credited with fighting for statehood, faces challenges from both the parties. Congress relies on its historical connection to the state’s formation, while the BJP emphasises developmental work, deploying its central minister Reddy as the party chief for the campaign. The outcome on December 30 will determine KCR’s fate and the position of the BRS, with Congress eyeing a strong presence in the south after its victory in Karnataka, and the BJP seeking to build a cadre following success in the upper Hyderabad council elections.

On the other hand, Madhya Pradesh witnesses a tough competition between the long-standing BJP rule and Congress. BJP has fielded its national leaders, while Congress relies on the Gandhis and Kamal Nath. A Congress win would challenge the BJP’s claim of no anti-incumbency, especially after Scindia’s shift. In Rajasthan, traditionally alternating between BJP and Congress, the ongoing elections suggest a shift. BJP’s decision to field MPs may affect its vote share, while Congress faces internal differences affecting its campaign. A Congress win would endorse Ashok Gehlot’s rural programmes, while a BJP win would demonstrate the party’s strength.

Chhattisgarh, under BJP’s Raman Singh for 15 years, saw a change in the last elections with Bhupesh Baghel leading Congress to victory. BJP targets the corruption issue of the Mahadev app, impacting Baghel’s campaign. For BJP, winning Chhattisgarh adds to its tally, while Congress relies on Baghel’s OBC identity to secure victory.

These elections are crucial, determining the fate of the OBC issue, Prime Minister Modi’s popularity, and the party’s crisis management abilities. The results will set the momentum for the 2024 elections. The outcomes will also influence the fate of Opposition alliances, with Congress gaining an upper hand if it wins and BJP claiming public satisfaction with Modi’s governance if it loses. Despite Congress winning the three states in the last elections, its subsequent performance in parliamentary seats suggests a divergence between state and national voter preferences.