Annamalai’s rise and BJP’s gamble: AIADMK-BJP alliance fallout in tn

The AIADMK-BJP fallout revolves around K. Annamalai, a former IPS officer who joined the BJP and swiftly ascended to the position of the party’s Tamil Nadu president in just a year.
Annamalai’s comments, seen as disrespectful towards AIADMK stalwarts like C.N. Annadurai and J. Jayalalithaa, are being held responsible for straining the alliance. This isn’t the first time Annamalai’s perceived audacity has come into question since his foray into politics in 2020. Although he didn’t secure victory in the 2021 Assembly polls in Aravakurichi, Annamalai has strategically positioned himself in the political spotlight, aiming to stand out in a landscape predominantly dominated by the DMK and AIADMK, with the BJP on the fringes.
Critics argue that the BJP’s national leadership appears uninterested in reining in Annamalai, despite signals from the AIADMK to address the issue. This has created the perception that he enjoys the trust of leaders like Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. In response to the AIADMK’s announcement of terminating the alliance, Annamalai evaded questions, stating that the national leadership would handle the situation.
The pressing question now is whether the BJP’s gamble of potentially sacrificing short-term gains in 2024 for long-term prospects will prove fruitful. Placing a significant bet on Annamalai is also a topic of debate within the state BJP. Some senior BJP leaders and party members have voiced concerns about Annamalai’s relative inexperience and perceived lack of understanding of Tamil Nadu’s unique political dynamics.
The BJP’s objective is to expand its footprint in Tamil Nadu for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, especially in the northern regions where challenges are anticipated. This raises doubts about the wisdom of allowing a crucial ally like the AIADMK to break away.
However, Annamalai’s supporters argue that the difference between contesting with the AIADMK and without it might not be substantial for the BJP. They anticipate winning approximately 3-4 seats out of the 40 in Tamil Nadu if they were to contest independently.
On the flip side, the BJP could see this situation as an opportunity to test its strength in Tamil Nadu, a state where it has invested significant efforts since the passing of J. Jayalalithaa. Annamalai’s youth, vigour, non-conformist identity, and non-Brahmin background are seen as assets. His firm stance on issues like the Sanatan Dharma controversy has garnered support from the RSS, and the BJP believes it might attract supporters uncomfortable with the DMK’s perceived “anti-Hindu” stance.
Annamalai’s public call for the Edappadi K. Palaniswami-led party to address allegations of corruption and voter bribery positions him as an outsider valuing principles over political niceties. The outcome remains uncertain, but this situation represents a defining moment for both the BJP and Annamalai. Observers suggest that a potential reconciliation between the two parties is not entirely ruled out.
The AIADMK has primarily directed its criticism toward Annamalai while maintaining communication with BJP leaders like Piyush Goyal and Vanathi Srinivasan. If the BJP were to return to power, it might be easier for the AIADMK to overcome its current reservations. However, the bargaining power of the BJP and Annamalai’s aspirations will play significant roles. Sources indicate that the ambitious Annamalai has set his sights on contesting as the chief ministerial candidate in the 2026 Assembly polls.