Trump’s Global Order Has a Strategy Though ‘Camouflaged’ by his Critics as Chaos and Disorder, Including Attacks on Venezuela. Iran? So, should Indians worry about his next attack stops, near and afar to home Bharat?
A number of well-known, geopolitical observers have tried to explain US president Donald Trump’s foreign policy. They have largely not been able to or have totally failed to do so. And precisely what is Trump Washington’s real strategy which I will argue here is much more coherent that his distractors would give him credit for. Will it lead, one day to the end of Bharat, or a great compromise of the great India, success story of today?
To start with is former national security advisor, John Bolton a top go to by CNN news to get biting criticism against the US president. Said Bolton, “Trump doesn’t have any strategic sense,” (Business Today) Next, Colonel (retired) Douglas Macgregor, a special Defence advisor, at one time to the first Trump administration and interlocutor with the president, described the US commander in chief as … “erratic, impulsive” … “in choosing his targets.” (tribuneindia.com). For Bolton he seems in a national US liberal media, supported campaign, underlined by what some call a Trump Derangement Syndrome. Or try top global expert and United Nations secretariat “favorite” Jeffrey Sachs who described Trump, essentially as a geopolitical gangster on a front-page story in this paper, recently. Sachs is an Ivy league, Columbia professor (Harvard graduate) with much commentary describing the US as a largely unhelpful bully.
And from a leading article in the International Politics Quarterly while complimenting the Canadian PM (Harvard and Oxford graduate) for his vision (doctrine) effectively against Trump, added this: “The way in which Carney laid out his arguments, however, betrayed a lack of honesty. Essentially, the argument pushed by Carney is comparing duly elected Trump and his tactics with Soviet (ex-USSR) communism which is certainly an ideological bridge too far.
All of this possibly has a nexus. Most of the aforementioned Trump critics are products of US university top international relations and political science or connected departments. To quote a leading academic journal, Foreign Policy, “America’s IR (International Relations) Schools Are Broken.” They lack enough historical and cultural contexts as but one point of criticism regarding many countries, especially on the Global South they teach and research about. Don’t Indians know from Antony Blinken former US Secretary of State and Harvard graduate who was still pushing US hegemony but with giving soft (if not leading) the other states like India as polars but comparatively minor ones to the US. Another graduate of such universities included ex top US State Department official, Victoria Nuland, Ivy league graduate who is fairly widely seen as supporting (if not leading) the coup in Ukraine. How did that Washington-in-the-beltway expert’s stratagem work out? But anti-major war Trump, a Wharton business school graduate, said he would never let the start of the Ukraine war if he had gotten into the White House in 2021, instead of President Biden. For Trump with his broad corporate mind and appreciation of good quality real estate, he has largely a view that a real major war is bad for real estate and doing business as priority.
How to explain the underlying assumptions or bases of Trump’s foreign policy and behind changing the old world order:
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Trump is a multi-billionaire, New York real estate magnate. He sees valuation as important. For example, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world and a weak government, especially its former president Nicolas Maduro. So, he was tempted to seize it like an exposed, undervalued takeover target. Just “like” when he saw opportunity knocking in real estate as a developer, he sent in his lawyers like “pit bull”, (the late) Roy Cohn. In his case with Venezuela, US Justice and the FBI.
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But on geopolitics where international law is arguably not as strong as US national law, he uses the latter to try to “seize” assets of countries and territories that show weakness and/or US strategic incompatibility in their present state. And the entire force is the mass US military he commands rather than using only, heavy-duty US lawyers. Trying one day the same with Iran with its huge gas and oil deposits? Not a good move?
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Trump has little interest in core curriculum in international relations, and much diplomacy taught at universities like Brown, John Hopkins, Harvard, Oxford or Virginia as critics listed here graduated from. And not supported by US exceptionalism taught there weaved into UN support. In fact, Trump seems to be subtracting by the day membership and funding of UN multilateral organs in general, many of which or their subordinate committees etc he recently cut membership or funding off like to WHO. There is a reason why the UN Secretary General, “Guterres warns UN faces imminent financial collapse,” headlined by Al Jazeera news. Trump prefers instead his Board of Peace, which he essentially unilaterally controls, and thinks he can do much better with than the UN – and making money, than using US money up?
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Trump does not see the UN as following his business model in general that makes money for his American interests, including protecting US security interests again largely to key US asset protection. Even getting Europe to defend itself more feeds cash into US military sales. And tariffs and sanctions are seen as money winners in his neo-capitalism / mercantile foray to employ much more US government financial leverage to generate the best rate of return and profits?
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Trump may at times display hegemonic behavior, but valuation, financial and asset gains are his priorities. The priority is not promoting liberal democracy, strong pro-human rights regimes or perceived US exceptionalism, at least not full neoconservatism. Hence, he has no enthusiasm for lecturing the Modi government as the previous Biden government, State Department misleading statements that New Delhi is minorities insensitive. As well, on a separate matter he does not focus on getting rid of the current Venezuela regime in Caracas, described rightfully by Joyeeta Basu, editor in this paper, as a “communist hell hole.” But for Trump, it is largely, “ Show me enough of the money” rather than fighting hard for democracies?
For India the plus is it is not considered a US enemy with huge oil and gas reserves and massive strategic mineral deposits, immediate and easily accessible. Though, India is with a lot of gold but mostly at the unreachable household level – to Trump. So average Indians should have no reason to worry about Trump on that score. Additionally, India is in military cooperation with the US in the Quad that Washington does not want to undermine. As well, India is way too large to even consider attacking at all. India is after all, no Greenland of small Denmark, no Iran or certainly not Venezuela.
On Trump tariffs against India or sanctions on Russian energy, India can deal if international energy prices do not blow up as its industries and citizens are not facing. And Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s energy and trade diversification policies are also working. There is also a possibility between the US courts and US Congress that Trump tariffs may be dismissed or alleviated in 2026.
Not to forget, India is one of the emerging major poles with a huge economy and lethal military so it can defend well against any fully “non-insane” Trump “sorties”. That is with the current Modi leadership with present India-wide unity, the Modi-way. That is even under a Trumpian (led) order that the US president sees the world foremost as “real estate” with cash flow possibilities. And doors to be heavily knocked on or knocked down where he thinks the pickings are easy and good to bring in cash. In this sense India is largely immunized as a polar fort to any description one might make of the US president as a “protection racket hitman”. Rather, the US means business that is Trump’s order, but way overly, heavy handed at times. India, with the Modi-led government will well survive it given its savvy and overall strength- and spiritual character.
Peter Dash writes on geopolitics and was a researcher and studied international relations at Harvard University. As well, he organised meetings with ambassadors from the North and South
