The future conflicts are going to be fought for natural resources and more pertinently for the sake of acquisition of energy. Flicks such as Waterworld and Mad Max cinematically depict the crisis of energy takeovers in an environ of dystopia when the post nuclear war comity is in the offing. The thematic percept, realism and immediacy of rare earth elements and the larger narrative about it leads to the conception of an Orange Economy. Observers of International Relations and International political economy talk about this novae geo economic perspective and geo-political reality. There happens to be argument afoot that the rare earth minerals are not contributors to the Global economy but that might not travel as a workable rationale as the present day “ techne” instrumentality for the carriage of global security, cyber concerns and the staple fare resources necessary to cobble together computer systems, mobile phones, batteries and Electronic vehicles, depend a great deal upon the germinating and constituent capacity of the rare Earth materials. They have become the prime contestation as far as the critical minerals trade and the new frontiers in global geo-economics and geo-strategy is concerned.
President Donald Trump is too inching for a close tete a tete with Islamabad for the realization of the strategic objective of countering the Chinese Belt and Road initiative and the entwined CPEC element in the form of the Gwadar sea base. In a manner, the White House has reneged on the India-US camaraderie post Operation Sindoor with the Americans allowing their soil to be utilized by the Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz shareef to militate against India in a speech in Tampa, Florida.
Rare materials are constituted by metallic elements of the order of 17 materials which are unique in the character and qualities and have a plethora of crucial industrial utilization. Its important for a rising power to ascertain a stable and regular supply of these minerals as the rare earths have an immense and crucial utility in the advancement of the “techne” and the processes and resources required for the sustainable development objectives of the larger international polity and geo-economics. The rare earths of the order of Neodymium are significantly important and have an avowed essentiality as far as the advanced ecosystems in the world are concerned. Neodymium is an essentiality for the Electronic vehicles and wind turbines to serve as permanent magnets as far as new and renewable demands of the Globe’s developing ecosystem is concerned. To take a cursory and factual look inside the role of Cerium and Lanthanum too, they are utilized as polishing powder for glass products, electrical components, catalysts for the cracking process in the petroleum industry, optics trade and hybrid cars, too.
China enjoys a dominance in the Global rare earths chains and the new agreement in the realm of rare earths has been inked between US and Australia in order to stick to the quintessential and standard, Containment doctrine of US foreign policy and doctrine. China faced a triple digit American tariffs and as a counter strategic maneuver the Han establishment blockaded its exports to US and other nations as a move to retaliate against the Trump’s tariff tirade since April, May 2025. The reality is that US despite all its diplomatic and economic bombast is dependent upon Beijing in order to run its smartphones and cars and even the criticality of its defense production. Thus, any trade and investment confrontation between the White House and Beijing is bound to include the idiom and the trade reality of how and who trades the rare Earth materials?
President Trump has been quoted as contending pompously that, “In about a year from now we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earth that you won’t know what to do with them. They’ll be worth $2.” President Donald Trump has termed the rare minerals deal between Australia and United States of America as a milestone for the industry in Uncle Sam’s homeland. The Aussie PM Albanese too eulogized the agreement with President Trump having the beaconlike potential to take the Australia US partnership to the “next level.” Still, one may add that United States might take decades to emerge free and independent from the Chinese stranglehold in the rare earth markets and the concerned trade ecosystem but still a diversification and expansion of the American sources for the vitality of its “techne health and stolidity.”
The American standpoint is also about negating the command and control economics of PRC which may not be able to commandeer and control the American and the its allied perch and strength despite the Chinese one-upmanship in the realm of rare earth trade and exports in particular.
Formed in 1994, the World Trade Organization found in a momentous decision that China was obstructing the international system’s trade viability and the fluidity of the value chains by impeding of its rare earths to stymie the manufacturers in a large number of other states with US being one of them. The Americans perceive it to be a ministration on the part of the Chinese to take over the global value chains of the rare earths. The understanding is that, the dictum of, “Global Heritage of the mankind” is a “global commons element” which cannot be usurped or dominated by one singular nation and its attendant interests. Apart from being a fly in the ointment in the global trade value chains, it raises question upon the tendencies on the part of Beijing to be the sole arbiter and profiteer as far as the context of rare earths is concerned.
Dr. Manan Dwivedi, Faculty, IR and IO, IIPA, New Delhi
