Why is there so much focus on the coming state elections, and how will they impact the politics of the Centre. Each state election is important in itself, but there is also a larger impact that this will have on the Central government. There is a psychological impact that is felt when the ruling government at the center wins or loses a state election, more so in the era of Modi when the Prime Minister has emerged as the party’s star campaigner and made each election a referendum on his leadership credibility.
Unfortunately for the BJP, the coming spate of state elections in Haryana, J&K and later on in Maharashtra and Jharkhand seemed veered towards the opposition more than the BJP. The BJP is in power in Haryana and Maharashtra and there is governor’s rule in J&K. Hence the first problem will be that of anti-incumbency. In the past the BJP under Narendra Modi has successfully warded off the perils of anti incumbancy but that has also been there has been a strong CM at the helm of the state. Here, the Haryana CM has not had much time to consolidate himself against a two term anti-incumbency while Maharashtra is a coalition government with a non BJP CM at the helm. It is not going to be easy for the party specially at a time when the Congress and its allies fancy their chances for a comeback.
Having said that, should the BJP fare poorly in the coming elections, how will it impact the Prime Minister. Here again, a lot depends on the individual. Any other Prime Minister would be affected by the optics of a resurgent opposition but so far Narendra Modi has shown no such qualms. He wasted no time in calling the newly elected BJP government as an NDA government and then went to fill the cabinet with his own team. Likewise with the Speaker of the Lok Sabha. Yes there have been some rollbacks on key issues but they have been dealt with swiftly as coalition compulsions. And since the PM did not dwell on them much but moved on to the next order of business it did not impact the governance optics all that much.
That, in a nutshell, is the secret of Narendra Modi. Go with the flow, manage the optics and bide your time for a comeback. Because if there is anyone who knows how to come out of a corner, it is Modi. It is now up to the Opposition led by a resurgent Rahul Gandhi to figure out how to contain this phenomenon. All in all, it does make for some interesting politics
