Armageddon, obfuscation, annihilation and unbridled mayhem! These four words poignantly describe the war as it unfolds and escalates every hour in West Asia and around the Urbania and the Nuclear sites of the Islamic Republic of Tehran. When we dwell upon the theme of “warring” between United States of America and Israel being on one side of the fence, symbolizing the, “Coalition of the Willing” and the “Axis of Resistance” constituted by Iran, China, Turkey and Russia, then the battle lines are partially drawn in the unfolding regional war beyond the red lines. The conceptualization of the terminology of red lines might be ancient, but, are relayed by the Israeli Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu from the granite pulpit of the United Nations General Assembly nearly every year in September in the United Nations headquarters in New York.
The missile exchanges and the drone multiples which have been fired by Tehran, has led to a fog of war being created in the Middle East’s battle and military narrative. It can be argued that Tehran has antagonized the observer nations of the order of Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE by firing missiles at the deactivated nations and who all are part and parcel of the GCC, that is, the Gulf Cooperation Council. Tehran should have been ideally content with ramming Israel but the inclusion of American military bases in its itinerary of revenge and vengeance has muddied the strategic battleground in West Asia and the future of the Iranian Republic.
An outlook emerges, that is, its oil exports are impeded, such as the framework of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC, (Organization of Petroleum exporting countries that a large kitty of reserves are kept maintained in the coffers of IEA across the length and breadth of the nations covered by OPEC. Also, China despite being a major member of the, “Axis of Eli resistance,” has been wary of buying oil from Tehran even when the prices varied from 65 dollars to 75 dollars and waited till a fairer deal was proposed by the Islamic Republic of Tehran.
Also, somewhere around 40 million dollars’ worth of Oil exports meant to reach China, are stranded midway, thus making strategic observers concerned about the fact that China too is gravitating towards a lower industrial future along with the massive influx of Electronic vehicles in its home turf, thus reducing the totality of Oil exports from Tehran. Still, nations such as Saudi Arabia and UAE have a quantum of 3.5 million dollars daily and 1 million dollars daily respectively, as reserves, which mitigates the often glorified Oil factor in the West Asian political and economic set up.
Also, as the conflagration becomes an imminent conflict, Diplomacy and negotiations need not be abandoned under the shadows and throes of an all annihilating regional war. Also, as an attendant fact, one cannot relegate to the backburner, the civilizational clash which has always been in the offing between Washington and Tehran. Historicity might be ponderous and it cannot be neglected under the nomenclature of “Antecedents”, but still a driving inside the origins of conflict is what the doctor ordered for the day. US has the modicum of Regime Charge as a key character of its foreign policy and diplomacy over the years. No one can forside the gory Vietnam war, the American incursions into Iraq through Operation Desert Storm and Operation Enduring Freedom and other interventions in Nicaragua, Panama, Grenada and the Dominican republic.
All in all, the removal of Mohammed Mossadegh in the 1950’s along with the iconic hostage taking of the American Embassy in 1979 which went on for a deafening time period of 444 days, can be pointed as the how the “Eternal conflict” with the “Evil Empire” and the “Satan” was initiated which was titled by President Ronald Reagan.
Also, how 241 American GI’s and Marines were killed in Beirut in 1983 all the way to the sinking of the American warship USS Cole in 1999, cemented the framework of an eternal and never ending conflict between the twin civilizational rivals. Thus, the entire spanning of the movement of GWOT, Global War on Terror, served as another impetus in the relentless conflict between US and Iran. As the war unfolds, the, “Shock and Awe” precision bombing and missile arts by the American and Israelis has led to the targeted annihilation of the top most leadership of the IRGC (International Republic Guards Corp) and Iran. The Supreme leader, Ayatollah Al Khamenei, too has been erased out by the American barrage and his family too has been erased which poses an existential threat to the veracity and sustenance of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Still, the IRGC’s crucial surrender is crucial now for the safety and well being of the Iranian population and the larger Global community of states as for the entire Public Media, academia and the Fourth Estate, whatever might be the antagonist’s ideological and theocratic standpoints.
As a culmination, the spectacle of war has returned to West Asia, where in one cannot but remember the grainy camera images of “lightening in the night skies” over the Baghdad skyline were, mediated by television anchors of the order of legendary, Peter Arnett, Christine Amanpour and Peter Jennings, as they stood on the rooftops of Hotel Baghdad relaying live, the pyrotechnics of Scud missile attacks being intercepted by the Patriotic missiles in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Dr. Manan Dwivedi, Faculty, IR and IO, IIPA
