In 1984, Amitabh Bachchan was featured as a Police Inspector in a film called Inqilaab. In the last scene, he bursts open with an automatic gun in the Cabinet meeting being chaired by the Chief Minister and his senior Cabinet colleagues and shoots down all of them as they were underworld dons and crime cartel bosses who had taken over the entire government of the state. How easy it is to show such daredevil adventure in the reel life than in real life!
The interim Cabinet announced by the Taliban reminded me of Bachchan’s Inqilaab; it includes virtually who‘s who of the terrorist world of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Interim Prime Minister Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund (credited with the destruction of Bamiyan Buddhas) and his two deputy Prime Ministers: Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (who led the discussions with the US in Doha) and Molavi Abdul Salam Hanafi figure on the UN terrorists‘ list. The interim Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and Minister of Refugees & Security of Kabul Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani are on the wanted list of the US FBI carrying a reward of $10 million and $5 million respectively. Out of 33 Cabinet Ministers which includes four of the notorious “Guantanamo five” 18 are on the UN Black list!
The overwhelming domination of the Haqqani Group in the all Pashtu Cabinet sans women bears a strong imprint of Pakistan’s ISI. No strategic analyst /planner can ignore these are hard ground realities in today’s Afghanistan.
This is the first time that so many ministers of a country are wanted internationally. How will they sustain their hold on power? How will they generate financial resources to run the country? How should the international community interact with such a government? If after an initial expression of shock, condemnation, and fervent appeal, the world embraces an attitude of “business as usual”, what’s the sanctity of UN/US/EU sanctions? They never cease to vent out their outrage against Iran and impose crippling sanctions but seem nonplussed and develop cold feet when it comes to dealing with the Taliban. Why?
The Taliban have changed the rules of the game. They have not only captured entire Afghanistan much faster than all the calculations of the US/EU/UN but have most brazenly and boldly put together a government of internationally wanted terrorists who have the blood of innocent people on their hands. And they have gone back on all the vague assurances they might have given to the US in negotiations in Doha about forming an inclusive government representing all ethnic groups, upholding human rights, especially women’s rights, and shutting doors against the return of the IS, Al Qaeda, and other terrorist groups and preventing the use of Afghan soil for mounting attacks on other countries.
Astoundingly, it’s not the US that’s accusing the Taliban of going back on their promises but the other way around. The Taliban is accusing the US of violating the Doha agreement by not removing the names of Sirajuddin Haqqani and others from the FBI’s wanted list and interfering in Afghanistan’s internal affairs by raising issues of inclusive government and human rights including women’s rights. The Biden administration is on the back foot and is facing mounting criticism at home for the withdrawal which Bruce Riedel, director, Brookings Intelligence Project, calls “a disaster and raises serious questions about the competency of the administration’s national security.” Bruce goes on to add, ”a hasty, precipitous and poorly planned withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan has put Al Qaeda back in Kabul and has empowered Pakistani army which is likely looking for new targets”. So, Pakistan which was being declared as a failed, bankrupt and imploding state by chest-thumping experts on Indian TV channels is in the back room driving seat in Afghanistan, at least, for the time being.
Apparently, in the struggle for power between the Loy Kandahar and Loya Paktia, the Haqqanis have got an upper hand; the moderate Taliban faction led by Baradar has been sidelined. The extreme restrictions they are imposing on women (they have to be seated separately in the classrooms, can’t play cricket and football) and on protests and vowing to follow the Sharia law are clear proof, if any proof was needed, that the Taliban 2021 is no different from the Taliban 2001!
For her global agenda, notwithstanding her concerns about the spread of terror in Xinxiang province, China is emerging Taliban’s biggest supporter. It has announced an aid of $31 million. Russia, Iran, and Turkey have been dealing with the Taliban. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE won’t oppose the Taliban. Keen to take out remaining Americans and Afghans who want to come out, the US chooses not to be too critical of the Taliban. Praying, India hopes, some lead will emerge from the current chaos.
In this atmosphere of doom and gloom and absence of any coherent, clearheaded and coordinated approach on the part of the international community, the only silver lining is the irrepressible courage of Afghan women who are protesting in the streets defying the diktats of the Taliban risking their lives. If the Gen Next (those who were born in 2001 are now 20 years old) which has benefited most in the last two decades despite the rampant corruption, the GDP and per capita income in Afghanistan rose, the enrolment in colleges and universities expanded exponentially, the youth, who enjoyed the fruits of internet and social networks, moved around freely working in different fields and excelling in arts, literature, music and; Rashid Khan, the hero of many T-20 victories, is a product of that relative piece, gets fired up to fight for their freedoms and join the courageous women, they can transform into a movement that can shake the mighty and brutal Taliban. Afghanistan is ready for a revolution; what’s missing is a Gandhi who could inspire and galvanise the whole nation to challenge and break away from the shackles of the Taliban’s tyranny, protesting bravely but nonviolently.
If the world remains just an impotent bystander in the name of “strategic patience” and let the Taliban thugs take the country to mediaeval ages, we will simply be singing: har shakh pe terrorist baitha hai anzame Afghanistan kya hoga?
The writer, a former Ambassador, writes on political and strategic affairs. The views expressed are personal.
