Recently, Syria experienced a significant political change with the removal of President Bashar al-Assad, bringing an end to his authoritarian leadership that lasted over twenty years. On November 27, 2024, a group of opposing fighters launched a major assault on pro-government forces.
The first attack took place along the border between the opposition-held Idlib and the neighbouring Aleppo governorate. Three days later, Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, fell into the hands of the opposing forces. The significant decline of over 53 years of al-Assad family rule has been described as a historic moment, nearly 14 years after the peaceful protests by Syrians against a regime that reacted with increasing violence, culminating in a devastating civil war.
A government led by Sunni Islamists, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has assumed power. The HTS, which was once the al-Qaeda (AQ) affiliate Nusrah Front during the Syrian civil war. It is classified as a foreign terrorist group by the US State Department.
However, HTS asserts that it severed ties with AQ years ago, identifying itself as Islamist rather than jihadist. They have put a hold on the constitution and the Syrian parliament to strengthen its control, while the regional situation and global attention make Syria’s journey toward stability and reconciliation even more challenging.
Background
Syria has been through over ten years of civil conflict, starting in 2011 with protests against President Bashar al-Assad during the Arab Spring. The Assad-led government has been in power in the country since the year 2000.
The conflict escalated into a complicated war involving the Syrian government, opposition forces, Kurdish groups, and extremist factions like ISIS, as foreign powers such as Russia, Iran, the U.S.A., and Turkey further fuelled the crisis.
A large number of people had to move, leading to a nation split by politics and facing serious economic hardship.
Even though Assad’s regime has managed to regain control over most territories in recent years, some areas in the northeast and northwest remain contested. The recent overthrow marks an important time, filled with many challenges and uncertain prospects for Syria’s future.
Syria’s Political Transition: The Post-Assad Era
The recent ousting of Bashar al-Assad has led to major political shifts in Syria, signalling the conclusion of a period characterized by authoritarian governance and turmoil. The newly formed government is largely made up of members from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They must deal with the huge task of reconstructing a country that has endured years of civil conflict.
The new government has put the constitution on hold and dissolved parliament, seeking to regain control during a time of significant turmoil.
Some may see this change as an opportunity for a fresh start, while others worry about increased marginalization and instability, especially for minority groups, which makes the way ahead unclear and filled with difficulties.
Sectarian Tensions and Security Challenges
The shift in Syria’s government has brought back intense sectarian conflicts, especially in areas where minority groups are prominent. In Tartous, an ambush by Assad loyalists resulted in the deaths of security personnel, highlighting the instability in Alawite-majority regions that remain loyal to the former regime.
After Assad’s rule, there are growing worries among Syria’s minority groups, such as Christians, Alawites, and Kurds, about their safety with the new Sunni Islamist-led government. Alawite communities, which have historically supported Assad, may be at risk of retaliation, while Kurdish areas continue to be exposed due to ongoing political conflict with Turkey.
Protecting minority rights in this delicate situation is a vital challenge for the new government, as neglecting this issue could worsen sectarian tensions and lead to unrest.
Regional Dynamics and Geopolitical Implications
Since the civil war began, Iran has helped keep Damascus close to Tehran. Syria became a base for Iran-backed proxies and a supply conduit to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Assad was disliked in most neighbouring nations.
While his subservience to Iran (and Russia) for power was problematic, a steady return to the Arab fold began in 2023, as for failing to curb protester violence, Syria was suspended from the Arab League in November 2011. Syria’s traditional allies, Iran and Russia, have remained strong supporters of the regime.
Syria’s political transition has sent ripples across the Middle East, intensifying regional tensions. Israel has increased its military activities, particularly in the Golan Heights, citing security concerns. Iran, a faithful supporter of the former Assad regime, faces challenges in maintaining influence, while Turkey and Gulf states closely monitor the unfolding power dynamics.
HTS head, Jolani, in his speeches has spoken that he wants to eliminate Iran and Russia’s interference. These gestures are politically appealing to Arab capitals and Israel, but his fundamental resistance to their positions remains a major issue. In the long run, Jolani as Syria’s leader will unnerve most people for several reasons.
The Road Ahead: Rebuilding Syria’s Future
It’s like going back in time to 2011–2013, when all of these issues were important because the Assad regime looked like it was about to fall. Now, people are talking about whether Syria will stay one state or break up into smaller states that will cause instability in the region, and how Israel and Jordan will handle these problems.
In villages near the Golan Heights that were not ruled, Israel tried to ease people’s pain and set up a system of local security. That looks like the way we’re going right now. It would be harder if there were no big forces to back up Syria’s security and government, like the US and Russia did for ten years.
But Israel has launched hundreds of strikes in the last few days to destroy Syria’s advanced military technology and keep it from getting into the wrong hands. The future of Syria depends on how well the country’s new government can handle the difficult tasks of healing, rebuilding, and bringing the country together.
With deep political splits, widespread poverty, and a society that is broken up, rebuilding Syria will need a broad policy that covers economic recovery, minority rights, and security. It will be hard for the government to rebuild trust in neighbourhoods that have been through years of violence and separation.
Not only will international help be very important for humanitarian aid, but it will also be very important for promoting government security and long-term peace. The road ahead is unclear, but it could be a chance for Syria to start over if it is handled well.
Dr. Alisha Verma is an Assistant Professor of Law at Symbiosis Law School, Pune, Maharashtra.