These days, India might need to worry more about the next geopolitical elephant in the room. It is big and and mainly white but it is a huge, icy island, called Greenland. The US president, Donald Trump demands the US to own it, or says if the US does not get it, he will invade and seize it, including its many rare earth minerals the US badly needs that China has. But its current European “owner”, Denmark and the Greenland government refuse to give it up, even after a recent meeting in Washington, between Trump’s Secretary of State and Denmark’s and Greenland’s foreign ministers. A showdown of sorts may be in the offing, the impact of which may likely ripple through India.
It is not all new. There has been an overall negative pattern Trump administrations have had wiith Europe over years. And that has been steadily worsening, which may cause Indians to be more than sideswiped by these tensions.
So what for India to do? Not to underweight the implications of these tensions on the Quad, China, Indian sovereignty, economics, trade, costs of living and well beyond for many Indians.
Now, for more on the context. Trump, indeed has threatened to invade Europe. Say what! According to CNBC, “Trump insists the U.S. must take control of Greenland to prevent Russia or China from doing the same.” His thinking is also that if the US owned the island, they would be better able to defend the Arctic waters around it, increasingly navigable, (due to climate change?) that he sees small Denmark could not be able to do against bad actors. And to add to injury to fellow NATO members and others, “Trump threatens tariffs against those who oppose him taking Greenland,” says the headline. (Guardian UK). This is obviously a diplomatic hot potato that India should not largely touch, except to say it respects the UN charter of international law, diplomacy and peace. But for Trump that statement may be too much?
Furthermore, the European establishment is also aghast at the way Trump had the US military grab, Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela at the time (rfi).,To say the least, there are growing rifts between Trump Washington and many capitals in Europe, be it Paris, Berlin, as with the EU. Trump also still has on his mind to take over Canada that Europe sees as undermining its alliances with the US. (Google AI ) Also, Europe which supports Ukraine going to war against Russia, bases this on international law in major part on Article II of the UN charter, preventing unilateral attacks. So, much of Europe appears not fond of Trump’s invasive rhetoric and actions of late, for the most part.
Though, first to calm the waters, at least somewhat. It is not in Trump’s personal makeup and family history to take a giant wallop to Europe. After all, Trump is not a Europhobe, culturally and in other ways. HIs first marriage partner, Ivana was a Czech Olympic ski athlete. His current wife, Melania grew up in Slovenia. His mother was from Scotland. His grandfather was a German before immigrating to America. And finally, his penthouse in New York City was first decorated as…”a luxurious triplex designed in a Neoclassical, Louis XIV style.” (Google AI) That Louis was the King of France.
Speaking of kings, so what if the 47th US president was protested against by those carrying placards stating, “No King” because they thought he was becoming too powerful at home or abroad? But that is all beyond comic type videos of “King Trump” wearing a golden crown and pooping on protesters from his airplane he piloted. The AI generated video by the White House should not worry Indians that the last British monarch over India, King George will be replaced by “King Trump” in his new empire. More seriously, despite certain mad activists’ views, Trump will not rule the world singularly but will have to or his successors to cooperate in an ever multipolar one. But he could lead one though at his current pace where Europe is floundering.
Let us recap some additional more historical context to this pattern of degeneration of relations between Trump and Europe. Firstly, especially pushed in Trump’s first term was his strong and pointed accusations that European NATO members had been short changing the US led military alliance by skimping on paying anywhere near enough on their militaries. Thus, they were seen as too much taking for granted that the US would with its much bigger military come to “Damsel” Europe’s rescue and save the day. And the US as a gallant, selfsacrificing “knight in shining armor” would (way) disproportionately risk suffering – soldier losses, in any major attack on Europe. But the US president, evermore transactional does not believe in fairy tales. In fact, rather than being that shining knight, Trump is ready to attack part of Europe even his own NATO alliance member. Times change. He remains though perturbed that countries like Spain are paying too little. In fact it is paying but one percent of GNP on its military compared to the US’s nearly three and a half percent. (Google AI)
For India, if Europe-US tensions go to a new high, though hard to imagine war what even to do now. The Narendra Modi government should keep building on good relations with Europe in its efforts to diversify and strengthen its trade position. The signing of a trade pact with the UK, and EU and many agreements with Germany underline the Modi government to keep on furthering India’s strategic position as Trump turns more inward towards western hemispheric security and control and more tariffs.
Trump’s seeminly greater focus on the Western Hemisphere does not mean that he is abandoning the Quad. But consistently, Washington may want India to take more responsibility over the security of the Indian Ocean especially in parts nearer India. However, if relations further badly deteriorate between the US and Europe, the latter may become more preoccupied with American manoeuvres into Greenland and paying altogether for the most on Ukraine’s defense than making any positive contribution to India’s defense and security beyond limited avaialble weapon sales. This furthers the Modi government’s accelerating efforts to develop the nation’s military capabilities by leaps and bounds, making India having the fifth largest military in the world, headed to become the third ranking one.
In my opinion, Trump will not invade Europe’s Greenland. He also has an affection for Europe to which he has family roots. And a US invasion of Europe through Greenland would take attention away from Asia, and might embolden China regionally. However, after Venezula who knows what the US president is capable of. India needs to take stock of the big what if – a greater spreading of a trade war as well, connected with a true breakdown in US-Europe relations.
Peter Dash writes extensively on geopolitics and has worked for two European governments.
