First of all, a very happy new year. Politically speaking, 2025 is going to begin on a highly charged note with the Delhi elections. Although Delhi is not a full state and sends only 7 MPs to the Lok Sabha, it is the capital and in terms of optics it sends a powerful message as to who controls the city. Which is why we have seen the never ending turf war between the BJP via the Lt Governor’s office and the ruling Aam Admi Party. For the sitting chief minister this is also a crucial election, as apart from Punjab (which is fast spiralling out of control), Delhi is the only win that he has to boast about. And Delhi is really where the Aam Admi Party’s journey began. For the BJP, this is a win that has always eluded Prime Minister Modi for it has never won Delhi after Modi took office. In other words, apart from Mamata Bannerjee, the Delhi CM remains one who has successfully warded off the Modi juggernaut. On a personal note, he would like to win Delhi for the BJP. In fact, going into the new year with less than two months left for the polls the BJP is still to announce a CM candidate. Which means this could well end up being a high stakes battle between Brand Modi and Kejriwal. As for the Congress, it is still to put its house in order and so far the only role it will play will be that of a spoiler – will it eat into the BJP’s vote or the AAP’s.
The other election due in 2025 is that of Bihar. There the alliances are already in place, with the BJP aligning with the JD(U) and the Congress with Laloo Yadav’s party. It would be interesting to see if Tejashwi Yadav can mount a comprehensive challenge to the NDA. As far as the NDA is concerned, then the dynamics between JD(U) and the BJP would be interesting. Will this be Nitish Kumar’s last election for his popularity is on a decline?
Apart from the elections, there is also the budget that will be the first challenge of the year. The economy still remains Modi’s biggest challenge. Will he continue to make the middle class pay for his welfarism or will he finally offer some cheer to the salaried professional, the trader and the entrepreneur ?
A marker of Modi’s hold over the BJP would be the election/selection of the new BJP chief as JP Nadda’s term ends in January (end). Will he be able to appoint a person of his choice, or will the RSS hold sway. If you recall in the last few state elections, specially Haryana and Maharashtra it was the RSS that did the bulk of campaigning. It is also the RSS that has taken credit for the wins, leading to speculation that it had begun to assert itself within the BJP.
As for Rahul Gandhi, the year 2024 had ended on a mixed note as the Congress could not maintain the Lok Sabha momentum in the assembly polls that followed. He still remains the Congress party’s tallest leader but there are others within the INDIA bloc that have begun to question his credibility to lead. As the only pan India party within the opposition the Congress still holds the dominant position. But while it may take the lead in parliament, it will not be able to assert itself in the regional polls. Kejriwal has refused to ally with the Congress in Delhi and Tejashwi Yadav is also not willing to cede too many seats to the Congress in Bihar.
Given that the INDIA bloc was formed for the Lok Sabha, it may survive these regional contradictions. But if it has to give a comprehensive challenge to the BJP in the next elections, now is the time to get its act together and come up with a common minimum program as well as a convenor. No use leaving these issues for the last minute.
This in a nutshell is a brief To-Do list for 2025.
