North India polls: BJP in leadership quandary, Congress rides momentum

The focus has now shifted to the next round of assembly elections, specially those being held in North India, the three states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The battle here is a face off between the Congress and the BJP. While the Congress for once is clear on its chief ministerial  candidates, partly because the party is in power in two of these three states, it is the BJP that is coming across as confused. Its not that the saffron party lacks in state leadership. In fact all the three states boast of viable CM candidates, with one sitting CM in Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and the others being Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh.

But there is a definite anti incumbancy against Shivraj Singh Chauhan for instance, while Raman Singh and Vasundhara were ousted by the COngress in the last polls. However, all three, specially Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje remain the tallest leaders in the state as of now. And to sideline them, make no mention of them in rallies organised by the Prime Minister tells its own tale. While the PM campaigns heavily in state polls and likes to make them into a Modi Vs the Rest fight, this time around he is asking for votes for the party. Kamal ko Vote Do (vote for the Lotus symbol) is what he is telling the voters in the poll bound states. And for one the Congress is having the upper hand, taking a dig at the BJP for fighting a face-less battle.

Several state leaders and Union Ministers have been given tickets to contest the assembly polls sparking off speculation that the hunt for alternatives is very much on. How will these assembly results impact the Lok Sabha vote in 2024 ? If we go by precedent then not very much as we saw in 2003 and recently in 2018 as well the states voted one way and the centre another.

But losing so many states, particularly bastions in the North, could impact the BJP voter morale and make a dent in the claim that the BJP is a vote winning election machine. Also it would shore up the Congress Party’s credibility with the INDIA bloc partners, and catapult it into a leadership position.

As of now Nitish Kumar has taken the lead with his caste census but the Congress is the only pan India party in the set up and that has its own advantage. With just two months to go before the crucial assembly polls it would be interesting to see how Modi resolves the leadership tangle.