These days, India might need to worry more about the next geopolitical elephant in the room. It is big and mainly white, though certainly beyond just a person. It is based around a huge, snowy, icy Arctic island, called Greenland. And the US president, Donald Trump demands the US own it.
Bizarrely, he said so at first that if the US did not get it, he would invade this European territory of a fellow, NATO alliance member. That included possessing its many rare earth minerals the US badly needs that China has already, giving the latter a major global security advantage.
But at the recent Davos Forum in Switzerland he changed his mind and said he would not seize it but implied he would be very bitter if Denmark and the Greenland government decided not to sell it or give it to America. What did that really mean, consequentially? Could he change his mind again?
After snatching a country’s president in Venezuela, not defined by him as an invasion, what indeed does Trump have in mind now regarding Denmark, the overseer of Greenland, and the local Greenland government?
That is as Denmark and the Greenland government are intent to refuse to give it up, even after a recent meeting in Washington, between Trump’s Secretary of State and US Vice President JD Vance, on one side and Denmark’s and Greenland’s foreign ministers on the other side. A major showdown of sorts may still be in the offing, further reshaping a world order, including for India.
It is not all new. There has been an overall negative pattern that Trump administrations have had with Europe over years. And that has been steadily worsening, which may cause Indians to be more than side-swiped by these tensions.
So what for India to do? Not to underweight the implications of these tensions on the Quad, Chinese regional behaviour, Indian sovereignty, more trade barriers and consequently resulting higher costs of living and well-being for many Indians.
Now, for more on the context. Trump, indeed had threatened to invade Europe. According to CNBC, “Trump insists the U.S. must take control of Greenland to prevent Russia or China from doing the same.” His thinking is also that if the US owned the island, they would be better able to defend the Arctic waters around it, increasingly navigable, due to climate change. Rather, he sees small Denmark as not able to stand up to bad actors descending on its Greenland territory.
And to add to injury to fellow NATO members and others, “Trump threatens tariffs against those who oppose him taking Greenland,” says the headline, (Guardian UK). This is obviously a diplomatic hot potato that India should not largely touch, except to say it respects the UN charter of international law, diplomacy and peace. But for Trump that statement may be too much?
Furthermore, the European establishment is also aghast at the way Trump had the US military grab, Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela at the time, (rfi.com) Trump also still has on his mind to take over Canada that Europe sees as undermining its alliance with the US. (Google AI ) Also, Europe which supports Ukraine going to war against Russia, bases this on international law in major part on Article II of the UN charter, preventing unilateral attacks. So, much of Europe appears not fond of Trump’s invoker rhetoric and actions of late, for the most part.
Though, first to calm the waters, at least somewhat, it is not in Trump’s personal makeup and family history to take a giant wallop to Europe. After all, Trump is not a Europhobe, culturally and in other ways. His first marriage partner, Ivana was a Czech Olympic ski athlete. His current wife, Melania grew up in Slovenia. His mother was from Scotland. His grandfather was a German before immigrating to America. And finally, his penthouse in New York City was first decorated as… “a luxurious triplex designed in a Neo-classical, Louis XIV style,” (Google AI) That Louis was the King of France.
Speaking of kings, so what if the 47th US president was protested against by those carrying placards stating, “No King” because they thought he was becoming too powerful at home or abroad? But that is all beyond comical videos of “King Trump” wearing a golden crown and pooping on protesters from his airplane he piloted.
This AI generated video by the White House should not worry Indians that the last British monarch over India will remain King George rather a “King Trump” in his new empire.
More seriously, despite certain mad activists’ views, Trump will not rule the world singularly. But he will have to, or his successors to accept and cooperate in an ever multipolar world of spheres of influence at the very least.
However, he might muscle into leading this new order where he recognizes India as one of the poles while not Europe. That is his current pace where Europe is floundering but where India is not but arising.
As well, let us not forget Trump’s first term. That is his pointed accusations that European NATO members had been short changing the US-led military alliance by skimping on paying anywhere near enough on their militaries. A Europe seen by Trump as taking for granted that the the immense US military would disproportionately suffer great casualties in defending “Damsel in Distress” Europe. But the US president, ever more transactional does not believe in fairy tales of the US, “knight in shining armour” to “Princess Europe”. In fact, rather than being a shining knight, Trump was near ready to attack part of Europe Times change.
For India, if Europe-US tensions go to a new high, India would no longer wait what even to do.
The Narendra Modi government should keep building on good relations with Europe in its efforts to diversify and strengthen its trade position.
The signing of a trade pact with the UK, and EU will come upon more with Germany underline the Modi government to keep on furthering India’s strategic position, as Trump turns more inward towards western hemispheric security and control and more tariffs.
Trump’s greater focus on the Western Hemisphere does not mean that he is abandoning the Quad. But consistently, Washington may want India to take more responsibility over the security of the Indian Ocean, especially in parts nearer India.
However, if relations further badly deteriorate between the US and Europe, the latter may become more independent, so both Bharat can manoeuvres relating to North America, Greenland or not. And paying altogether and concentrating on Ukraine’s defense than making any positive contribution to India’s defense and security beyond limited available weapon sales. This furthers the Modi government’s accelerating efforts to develop the nation’s military capabilities by making India having the fifth largest military in the world, headed to become the third ranking one.
In my opinion, Trump will never invade Europe’s Greenland. He also has an affection for Europe to which he has family roots. And a US invasion of Europe through Greenland would take attention away from Asia, and might embolden China regionally. However, after Venezuela who knows what the US president is capable of including on the Quad and tariffs especially regarding India. The country must indeed become more self-sustaining in many ways, as the new “Trumpian order” is carved out – for the time being.
(Peter Dash writes extensively on geopolitics and has worked for two European governments. He is now based in the South where he teaches.)
