Karnataka elections and beyond

The Congress win in Karnataka has sent a very reassuring message within the Opposition camp, and more specifically, for the Congress. This was more or less a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress and the latter needed the win in order to bolster its credentials as the party that could lead the Opposition. This much has been achieved, as well as sending the right optics for the next battle in the North, in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Here too, it’s a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress. Also, the Congress has a good chance of wresting back Madhya Pradesh and retaining Chhattisgarh. In both the states, it is the local leadership that will make all the difference rather than the Central leadership. And having said that let me reiterate a point that I made earlier that the Karnataka model should be followed in the other states as well. In fact, this was originally the Himachal model that was copied in Karnataka.

To explain, in both Himachal and Karnataka, it was the local leadership that led from the front. Also, Rahul Gandhi was not the chief campaigner or the face of the campaign. In Himachal, it was Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, Mukesh Agnihotri and Pratibha Singh that led the campaign, while in Karnataka it was Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivkumar holding dual charge. Also, more important, the infighting in both the states was contained away from the headlines and not out there on public display as much as it is within the BJP in both Himachal and Karnataka. (Or for that matter, as in the Congress state unit in Rajasthan!). That sent a stable message to the voters.

The presence of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge also added heft to the Karnataka campaign. The fact that the Congress President is from the state had its own optics.
In fact it is not Rahul who is emerging as the star campaigner from the centre, but his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. A charismatic campaigner who is always on message, she is delivering some of the smartest lines in taking on the Prime Minister and the BJP. She was a visible campaigner both in Himachal and Karnataka.

This is a model that can be replicated—keep Priyanka and Rahul, more of Priyanka than Rahul for the campaign—let Kharge take the leadership centrestage, flanked by local leaders (who are not sniping at each other, at least in public). The issues raised were local, the issue of corruption in Karnataka and the Old Pension scheme in Himachal. The BJP also had the added problem of anti-incumbency in both the states.

Also, as it is, the BJP’s modus operandi it tried to divert the campaign by bringing in central issues and the PM’s own track record, but the Congress stayed on message and stuck to the local issues.
This may not work at the central level during the 2024 elections where the Congress lacks a tall leader to take on PM Modi. And the BJP will do its best to make it a presidential fight for this very same reason, though the Opposition would prefer to make it an issue based one. But, that is for later. For now, for the state elections, this is a very good model for the Opposition, specially the Congress to follow.

As for the BJP, with the Karnataka loss, it has lost its only foothold in the South. Telengana is slated to go to the polls in the next few months and the party is already working on its campaign in the state. The Congress is on a weak wicket in Telangana where it lacks a tall leader, unlike Karnataka, Himachal or even Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. And with the polls revolving around the ruling BRS, any anti-incumbency vote will be divided between the Congress and the BJP. Hence, the Congress has its work cut out to keep up the momentum that it has got from the Karnataka win.