Going Beyond the U-Turn

Nitish Kumar has done yet another U-turn and is back in the BJP fold. The key question is not so much about the Bihar Chief Minister’s political trajectory as it is about the larger political landscape.

First let’s talk about what this tells us about the BJP’s strategy for 2024. Given the fact that the move to woo Nitish Kumar happened post the great Ram Mandir Pran Prathistha ceremony tells us that the BJP is not going to rest on the Kamandal plank alone. It is going to be seeking out votes on mandal as well and for that, who better to rope in than the person who recently resuscitated the caste survey. Apart from which the JD(U)-BJP combine complements each other’s vote banks. Also it kind of takes away the steam from Rahul Gandhi espousing the cause for a caste survey, when the posterboy for the same has jumped ship.

More worrying is what Nitish Kumar’s desertion signifies for the I.N.D.I.A block. One, its clear that he feels the opposition has nothing to offer him, both at the state level and at the centre. Two this is also coming at the heels of other allies acting tough with the Congress. Mamata Bannerjee has almost ruled out an alliance with the Congress, the Aam Admi Party has said okay to one in Delhi but is expecting a quid pro quo in Haryana and Gujarat and is not keen to go in for an alliance in Punjab. While in Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav has unilaterally announced 11 seats for the Congress while the latter clearly wants a whole lot more. But can the Congress afford to talk tough at a time when its own winnability quotient is at an all time low. Indeed there are those who are wondering if the Congress tally would fall even lower in the next round of General Elections. On top of that you have a continuous high profile exodus of leaders once considered part of Rahul Gandhi’s `Camelot’ – former union minister Milind Deora being the latest on that list.

Moreover apart from leadership there is still the question of ideology. Post the Ram Mandir Pran Prathistha there has been a huge wave of hindu consolidation in the BJP’s favour. The Prime Minister has delivered on a much longed for yearning not just by hardline Hindus but even the moderate ones who felt sidelined in their own country. While it is still too early to pronounce India as a theocratic state it would be stupid to deny that Narendra Modi is clearly the Hindu Hriday Samrat who has reached out to the majority community in a way no politician before him has. And that is going to be the Congress party’s toughest narrative to counter in the coming polls.
Priya Sahgal