A lot of unhappiness is being voiced by partners of the fast fraying I.N.D.I Alliance over both the Congress’ and the AAP’s decision to go it alone in the Delhi Assembly elections. I.N.D.I Alliance partners say that squabbling did not help either of the two parties, and that it was the Congress that ensured that the AAP lost in constituencies where the fight was close. What is being missed by them is that it’s not necessarily arithmetic that decides elections, it’s chemistry. If it was arithmetic, then the Maharashtra Assembly elections would have been swept by the Maha Vikas Aghadi, because going by the Lok Sabha numbers, the alliance of Congress, Shiv Sena and NCP (Sharad Pawar), would have swept the elections. Instead, it was the Mahayuti of the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP that won with a landslide. One of the main reasons for this is that voters often do not vote the same way in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Also, an alliance of rival parties, like in Delhi—AAP vs Congress—works if vote transfer happens. For instance, in Bengal, the Left and the Congress were at loggerheads for decades, when in 2016 they decided to fight the elections together. Numerically, in terms of vote percentage, they would have beaten the ruling incumbent, the Trinamool Congress easily, but that did not happen, because even though Left vote transferred to the Congress, it was not vice versa. Ever since, the majority of the Congress vote in Bengal has shifted either to the BJP or to the Trinamool Congress. Similar has been the case in Uttar Pradesh, with respect to Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The SP-BSP combine was apparently a formidable one and was supposed to get a majority of UP’s 80 seats. But it did not happen like that, because even though SP voters voted for BSP, giving Mayawati’s party 10 seats, BSP voters did not shift to SP, restricting Akhilesh Yadav’s party to only 5 seats.

Hence, any electoral outcome depends on voter apathy towards a particular party.
In the case of Delhi, there was huge anti-incumbency against the AAP. The controversies surrounding AAP’s excise policy and Arvind Kejriwal’s Sheeshmahal had given the party a body blow. The platform of honesty and integrity which had catapulted Kejriwal to limelight and power, had crumbled. The shoddy handling of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi added to voter grievances against AAP. Add to this the excellent ground work done by the BJP, under the guidance of Home Minister Amit Shah, who was involved in every step of strategising and then implementing the electoral plan, right from identifying the AAP’s weaknesses to selecting candidates—and the AAP did not have a chance. It is not easy to humble a party that has an iron grip on the voters and the numbers to prove that. But then after 10 years of being in power, Kejriwal got beaten by superior strategy and sheer hard work of the Sangh Parivar.
In fact, under Amit Shah the BJP was very successful in communicating to the voters that the party should be given a chance as thus the union territory would get the benefits of a double-engine government—that for the first time India’s capital city would get to implement Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision; that the national capital deserved to be ruled by a party that ruled the country as well. Hence, the voters’ belief in PM Modi’s assurances, brought the BJP to power in Delhi, after over two and a half decades.

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So all this talk about AAP and Congress together could have defeated the BJP is likely just talk, even though in a few close fights, the Congress may have played a role in defeating the AAP. But such seats are not many.
As for the BJP, now that there is zero scope for conflict between the Delhi government and the Central government, the party has its work cut out. It not only has to deliver on the promises it has made to the voter in terms of freebies, but also tackle Delhi’s problems of a war footing. Cleaning the Yamuna, helping Delhi residents breathe clean air and adequate water supply 365 days a year should be among its top priorities. The very fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured Delhi that Yamuna would be cleaned gives hope to the people of Delhi and its neighbouring cities that some actual work will finally start. Infrastructure building too is expected to get further push. Among all this, eliminating air pollution will be the toughest, for that will require the states in Delhi’s neighbourhood, particularly Punjab—currently ruled by AAP—to fall in line and stop stubble burning in October-November.

The bottom line is that the BJP no longer faces any hurdles in governing Delhi. It must deliver the promised governance now.