In the wake of the ongoing Gaza ceasefire, the precise bombing of southern Lebanon just hours before the funeral of Hezbollah Chief Hasan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike last September, sends a clear message from the Israeli Defence Forces to its enemies that this ceasefire is very much temporary. Israel is committed to eradicating all its enemies sooner or later.
Context
The fall of more than two decades-long dictatorships in Syria is marked by a major geopolitical shift in the war-driven Middle East. Although the journey of the Assad family-led autocracy in Syria started in 1963, its climax reached under Basar Assad, a second-generation dictator of the Assad family, in December 2024. Though Basar Assad came to power after succeeding his father, Hafeez Assad, in early 2000, his brutal and despotic rule in actual sense mainly started right from the beginning of the pro-democracy protest in 2011 during the Arab Spring.
His autocratic rule in Syria has not only devasted the whole country economically but also played a significant role in making the country a breeding ground for terrorism while pushing the country into the mouth of civil war, which further led to mass migration, displacement and refugee crisis in Syria.
Geopolitical Shift and its Major Outcomes:
After the collapse of the Syrian dictatorship, Israel continues to advance towards western Syria, intending to create 400km of buffer zone in the western Syrian region beyond the Golan Heights. The idea is probably to help Israel cut off the Syrian corridor connecting Lebanon with Iran and stop it from trafficking arms and ammunition into the Levant region through this Syrian corridor.
The capability of Iran to project power in the Levant region has certainly weakened in post-Assad Syria due to the disruption of this corridor. Hence, the significant investment previously made in Syria by Iran will greatly be impacted, further giving an economic shock to its GDP, as the Iranian government is already heavily sanctioned by the Western allies. This will, for sure, pose a new challenge in front of the Iranian government to back pro-Iranian non-state actors (Hezbollah and Hamas) existing in the region.
The overthrow of Assad from power has given a significant geopolitical setback to one of the most important players from the Syrian side in this conflict, that is none other than Russia. Using Syria as a platform to project its interest against the West, Russia had already established itself as a major player in the Middle East. But, following the dramatic fall of the Assad regime, Russia’s extra-regional geopolitical image and its geostrategic influence in this region have significantly suffered. Therefore, without any delay, Moscow has already started looking for alternatives that could strategically help Russia continue making its image as a net security provider in the region. As a result, the Kremlin has recently passed a bill seeking to remove the Taliban from the list of terrorists.
There is a possibility that the USA-backed and anti-Iran Arab states of this region may be seeing the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria as a geopolitical win over Russia & Iran. There is also a possibility that the anti-Iranian Arab states may side with Israel to offset the remaining Iranian strategic influences in Syria. In the wake of PM Netanyahu’s scheduled meeting with Donald Trump, Syria’s recent official visit to Saudi Arabia has grabbed attention from around the world. In response to that, the chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) has warned Syria’s new leadership as well as Saudi Arabia, stating that “Our missile can strike any enemy target in the region and overcome the enemy’s anti-missile defences”. This statement by the chief of IRGC shows how significant the Syrian corridor is for Iran to operate its proxy forces. This is all happening at a time when Trump 2.0 is taking a very tight diplomatic stance for his Middle East policies.
The resulting instability in Syria has cleared a path for Israel to have a strategic advantage in the region. Israel is, therefore, expected to emerge as a very crucial friend of the pro-US Arab states in the resulting instability, promising to become a net security provider and combat terrorism while gradually promoting its own agenda in the region. This probable outcome will additionally increase the significance of Israeli defence capability in the rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics of West Asia.
Kurdish Aspect in the Shifting Geopolitics of West Asia:
In post-Assad Syria, the People’s Defence Unit(PDU), a US-backed Kurdish militia which was also a party to the anti-Assad forces, is eying a separate independent rule in the post-Assad regime.
The HTS, being a main rebel group of the anti-Assad forces, has a great influence of Turkey politically and militarily. As Turkey is well aware of the fact that the creation of a Kurdish independent state in the region will be a direct threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity, it would never let PDU achieve their dream of creating an independent Kurdish state. Turkey also argues that the creation of an independent Kurdish state in Syria would trigger a domino effect for the demand for a separate Kurdish state in the neighbouring states, too. Henceforth, Turkey will probably be the most affected state by this demand, as Turkey already has great hostility with the PKK, the most notorious Kurdish militia group in the region. As HTS-led Syria has recently held a National Dialogue Conference regarding the framing of the constitution, the Turkey-backed Syrian interim government did not invite the US-backed Kurdish militia group(PDU) to the conference. Failing to include the Kurdish rival in this conference will certainly escalate the regional conflict in the future. It also proves to be right that the instability in Syria and the continuous demand for a separate state for Kurds is not over yet. Henceforth, the prevailing conflicts in post-Assad Syria have potentially proved to be a good recipe for Israel from its geostrategic point of view.
Spark in the Kashmir Valley
In the UN, India has always voted in favour of the Syrian claim to Golan Heights for decades in exchange for Syria not making any provocative comments against India as well as not being supportive of militancy in Kashmir at all. However, the anti-Assad rebel groups of Syria, such as ISIS and Al-Qaida, have always been vocal and supportive of militancy in Kashmir valley. In the Julani-led regime in Syria, India may witness a spark in the Kashmir valley, as the militancy in Kashmir has a direct link with anti-Assad Syrian rebel groups.
The reason behind anti-Assad forces supporting militancy in Kashmir is probably because India always indirectly supported the Assad regime in Syria and always maintained its strategic silence over the Syrian civil war. Now, the HTS-led post-Assad regime and the increasing instability in Syria may give a spark in the Kashmir valley sooner or later. As Al Julani-led HTS is backed by Turkey, Turkey’s growing ties with Pakistan in recent times are additionally quite concerning for the anticipated instability in the Kashmir Valley. Therefore, the Indian government must be well-prepared to respond to any activity challenging Indian sovereignty in the valley. However, India’s strengthening ties with the West Asian countries (particularly Qatar and the Taliban) is a smart strategy to indirectly discourage and counter the negative influence of militancy in the Kashmir valley.
Sanjay Turi, Doctoral Candidate, Centre for West Asian Studies(CWAS), School of International Studies(SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
