The BJP sounded its bugle for the next round of elections with its national executive in the capital. But while the primary focus was the nine state elections due this year the ultimate goal was Lok Sabha 2024. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah that is the `macchali ki aankh’ (eye of the fish) and they never lose sight of their target, not for a minute. In fact, of the nine states going to polls, there are four big ones which will see a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. These are Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. (In Karnataka there is the JDS which could end up being kingmaker or spoiler, but the optics are really on the battle between Congress and BJP.) As of now, the Congress seems to have an edge in Karnataka, Chattisgarh and perhaps even Madhya Pradesh. The BJP seems to have acknowledged and is gearing up to this challenge. But, even if their worst fears come true – as is what happened in 2018 right on the eve of the 2019 Lok Sabha, Modi managed to sweep the Lok Sabha. Hence it would be wrong to see this round of state elections as a semi-final, because they have no bearing on the Lok Sabha polls, except as a reality check on the local state units. It is the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign that the PM and his team are gearing up for. Recently Congress leader Shashi Tharoor com – mented that the BJP could lose almost 50 seats in the next Lok Sabha as it had `peaked’ in 2019. Tharoor pointed out that the party had won all seats in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Haryana, had swept most of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar and got as many as 18 in West Bengal. Part of the win was attributed to the wave of nationalism that went in favour of the BJP post the Phulwana attack. Since this was a one off prompted by external factors, could the BJP hope for a repeat wave in 2024? There is also Rahul’s Bharat Jodo yatra, which may not reap electoral benefits for the Congress which is still to get its act together organisationally; but the yatra did feed into the discontent and the eight year old anti incumbency against the Modi government. This could benefit regional parties for they are in a stronger position than the Congress in most states. However if the BJP does lose as many as 50 seats it would bring its figure down to 250 (from the current 303). Anything less than 272 means the party would be dependent on allies and would stand to lose its strong Modi flavoured brand of governance. So if Tharoor can read the writing on the wall then it’s a given that the Modi-Shah duo are well aware of the challenges ahead and have already begun taking steps to course correct. Beginning with the PMs ostentatious road show in the capital at the beginning of the national executive which saw him making a grand statement right in the middle of Arvind Kejriwal’s garh (fort). Delhi elections are not due till 2025 but the PM knows that in 2024, while Kejriwal may not have a pan India organisation to challenge him, he would still be a formidable contender on social media and in debating studios. So, let the games begin as the countdown to 2024 has started.
