The political upheaval in Bangladesh that erupted with the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 has plunged the nation into turmoil. What began as protests against allegations of corruption and authoritarianism has escalated into violent sectarian violence with broader implications for South Asia’s stability, particularly in its relationship with neighboring India.
As Bangladesh teeters on the edge of further instability, the crisis has emerged as a geopolitical flashpoint, with multiple international actors, including Pakistan, China, the United States, and radical Islamist groups, seeking to advance their interests. At the heart of this complex crisis is the violence against Bangladesh’s Hindu minority, and its regional impact is already reverberating across South Asia.
Violence in Bangladesh: A Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
The nature of the violence targeting the Hindu minority in Bangladesh manifests in both overt and covert operations designed to deepen the crisis.
Overt Violence: The public, brazen attacks on Hindu temples, businesses, and individuals in broad daylight are a stark reminder of the fragile state of law and order in the country. These violent mob attacks, often carried out without fear of legal repercussions, send a powerful message: that religious minorities are vulnerable, and impunity reigns. The attacks are aimed not only at intimidating the Hindu community but also at destabilizing the political environment and challenging Bangladesh’s secular identity.
Covert Operations: Beneath the surface of overt violence lies a more calculated strategy. Covert attacks across various districts suggest coordination by extremist factions, both domestic and transnational, seeking to create a fractured society. These operations—precise and synchronized—indicate an orchestrated effort to destabilize the country further. Radical groups, capitalizing on the political vacuum, are trying to weaken the interim government, deepen societal divisions, and undermine Bangladesh’s secular political fabric.
The Key Actors: Regional and Global Power Struggles
Several players—both regional and international—are deeply invested in the crisis unfolding in Bangladesh, each with different agendas that have significant implications for India.
Pakistan: Exploiting the Opportunity for Regional Influence
The political instability in Bangladesh presents Pakistan with an opportunity to exploit historical rivalries, particularly stemming from the 1971 Liberation War. Pakistan sees Bangladesh’s current political vacuum as a chance to destabilize its eastern neighbor and weaken India’s security posture. Recently days before Three Star Army Delegation from Bangladesh went on to Islamabad for strategic alliance and deepening the Military ties-up between them.
ISI’s Role: Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has long supported radical Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, which have been involved in violence against minorities. The ISI is likely encouraging these factions to escalate attacks, destabilizing the interim government and diverting Indian attention from its western borders. This fits into Pakistan’s broader strategy to keep India preoccupied with regional instability.
Geopolitical Motives: Instability in Bangladesh could also be a tactical move to distract India and complicate its security calculus. Pakistan has always seen Bangladesh as a way to limit India’s influence in South Asia, and a destabilized Bangladesh could keep India occupied with both internal challenges and regional uncertainties.
China: Economic Investments and Strategic Interests
China’s role in Bangladesh is predominantly shaped by economic considerations, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to increase Chinese connectivity and influence across Asia.
Economic Interests: China has invested heavily in Bangladesh’s infrastructure, including the construction of the Padma Bridge and projects around the Chittagong port. These developments are vital to China’s strategic goal of enhancing its trade routes and establishing a presence in the Bay of Bengal. Political instability in Bangladesh could derail these investments, making it essential for China to support efforts to restore order.
Backing Authoritarianism: China has been a close ally of Bangladesh’s Awami League in the past, offering diplomatic and economic backing. Now, with the rise of Muhammad Yunus as the interim leader, China may look to ensure the stability of the new government, even if it means tolerating elements within the political spectrum that align with Islamist groups.
United States: A Push for Democratic Reform
The United States, having criticized Sheikh Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian rule, now faces the delicate task of recalibrating its relationship with Bangladesh under the leadership of Muhammad Yunus, who has long championed democratic reform.
Promoting Democracy: Yunus’s leadership provides an opportunity for the United States to encourage democratic reforms in Bangladesh, aligning closely with its foreign policy priorities. The U.S. sees the turmoil in Bangladesh as an opening to counterbalance the rise of authoritarian regimes and extremist groups in the region.
Countering China’s Influence: As China’s influence in South Asia grows, the U.S. is keen to position Bangladesh as a key partner in its Indo-Pacific strategy. The United States will likely seek to stabilize the country, bolster democratic institutions, and ensure Bangladesh does not fall under the sway of Chinese influence or radical ideologies.
Islamist Extremist Groups: Exploiting the Power Vacuum
Islamist extremist groups, including Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), are well-positioned to exploit Bangladesh’s political chaos for their benefit.
Radical Ideologies: These groups have long targeted Bangladesh’s secular institutions, and they view the current political instability as an opportunity to push their agenda of establishing an Islamic state. The persecution of Hindus is part of a broader strategy to divide Bangladeshi society along religious lines and undermine secular governance.
Transnational Networks: Groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS also have a vested interest in expanding their influence in South Asia. The ongoing unrest in Bangladesh provides fertile ground for these networks to further radicalize local elements and destabilize the region.
Implications for India: A Geopolitical and Humanitarian Dilemma
For India, the crisis in Bangladesh presents a complex mix of geopolitical and humanitarian challenges. The violence against the Hindu minority, a community with deep cultural ties to India, raises significant ethical concerns and threatens to exacerbate bilateral tensions.
Humanitarian Concerns: Protecting the Vulnerable
The attacks Hindus in Bangladesh have drawn considerable concern from India. Many view the violence as a humanitarian crisis, leading to calls for India to intervene or offer refuge to the victims. India’s role as the guardian of its cultural and religious kin in Bangladesh has placed the issue at the forefront of its foreign policy.
Refugee Crisis: Border States at Risk
The violence could lead to a significant refugee influx into India, especially in states like West Bengal and Assam, where the Hindu population in Bangladesh shares cultural and familial ties. This poses a significant challenge, both in terms of humanitarian response and potential political tensions, as the refugee issue has been a contentious point in Indian domestic politics.
Bilateral Relations: Strained Ties with Bangladesh
India has invested heavily in cultivating a strong relationship with Bangladesh, particularly under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina. A destabilized Bangladesh threatens to undo years of diplomatic, economic, and security cooperation between the two countries, particularly in areas like trade, water-sharing, and border security. Furthermore, India’s response to the violence could complicate its relationship with both Bangladesh and other regional powers.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for South Asia
The political crisis in Bangladesh is more than just an internal affair. It has the potential to alter the geopolitical landscape of South Asia, with multiple regional and global actors vying for influence. The violence against the Hindu minority is a troubling humanitarian issue, but it is also part of a broader struggle for control over Bangladesh’s future direction—one that involves extremist groups, regional powers like Pakistan and China, and international players like the United States.
For India, the crisis presents a delicate balancing act. As it navigates the complexities of protecting its cultural kin and securing its geopolitical interests, India must consider both its long-term strategic objectives and the immediate humanitarian challenges. Ultimately, the outcome of Bangladesh’s crisis will shape not only the future of the country but the stability of the broader South Asian region for years to come.
The author international foreign geo-political expert.
