Will the Ukraine War usher in a new world order with more than two countries dominating the global management order? The argument for the multipolarity of the world comes from the fact that China has already emerged as a great economic power on the world stage. Its technological prowess is also growing, and its military might is increasing. At the same time, a resurgent Russia is looking more powerful through its extreme resilience in the face of unparalleled hostility from the collective West. Despite all their efforts, Russia has made a stunning comeback with its military might and economic revival. Interestingly, it is getting silent support from most of the Global South. Even during this testing time, its sphere of influence seems to have expanded, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. Some other potential powers have emerged in the queue, with the potential to grow their economic, political, and military weight and influence. All these offer a hopeful perspective on the idea of a multipolar world,
The Present Idea of Polarity of the World
Great power rivalry and smaller countries aligning with big powers are not new. Even the great battle of Kurukshetra of the Mahabharat (India) or the fight for Helen in Troy (Turkey) are the best examples of the type of division and alignment the great powers can bring during wartime. In medieval history, we find that empires were built with the aura of military might to accumulate wealth. However, the present idea of the polarity of powers came mainly from Europe. In that context, a country may become a pole based on its economic strengths, military might, and the leverage it enjoys in influencing other countries’ decision-making processes.
What is a great power?
Professor John Mearsheimer, a Political Science Professor at the University of Chicago, USA, in a recent interview at the ‘Rising India’ Program in Delhi, India, identified two principal factors that make a country a great power: the nation’s wealth and population. Prof. Mearsheimer believes the world is already multipolar, divided into three poles: the USA, China, and Russia. He termed India an aspiring great power, though he was optimistic about its future.
We could also prolong the idea a bit further by defining the world powers in the context of the 20th century and seeing what may happen in the world’s polarity scenario in the post-Ukraine War world.
Modern History of Great Powers
The 20th-century history of the great powers was dominated by some countries. Indeed, there were five big powers in Europe at the beginning of the 20th century. They were divided into two groups. “The first grouping were the three most powerful states—Great Britain, Germany, and France. The second grouping was lesser in rank, but remained significant for the period—Austria-Hungary and Russia.”(https://digitalbell-bucket.s3.amazonaws.com/ 7694A4A0-5056-907 D-8D1E-BFF9F2D8EED4.pdf). Then came the 1st World War. It changed the power equation a bit when the US emerged as a World Power like the UK, while the German power was contained through the Treaty of Peace, better known as the Treaty of Versailles, signed in 1919. The Ottoman Empire, a great power, demised at the end of WW1, while Japan emerged as a big power in East Asia.
However, the great power dynamics changed a lot after the 2nd WW. We saw the emergence of two superpowers, one led by the US and the other by the former Soviet Union. Interestingly, the great power status of the former Soviet Union was not assigned based on wealth measures at all. It was rather the military might of the Soviet Union that made it a formidable power, a pole of the World. At the same time, the appeal of communism as an economic and political philosophy to run government appealed to many countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. That also created leverage it enjoys in influencing the decision-making processes of many countries worldwide. The seminal work of Angus Madison 2001 did not talk much about the economy of the Soviet Union.
Nonetheless, with the demise of the former Soviet Union in 1991, the world saw a massive power shift to a single country, the US. It was also considered to have created a Unipolar moment when the US became the undisputed and one of the most powerful nations of human civilization.
However, that moment did not last very long, as by 2008, China had emerged as the 2nd largest world economy, and by 2010, it became the biggest exporter too. By 2013, it was the single largest trading nation on the planet. As per Prof. Mearsheimer, by 2017, the world became bipolar again. Then why is he arguing that the world is multipolar by now? It seems he accepts Russia as another great power of the pole. Many in the West do not accept Russia to be a pole now, though they may soon change their mind based on the outcome of the Ukraine War.
So, the chronology of worldwide power evolution in the 20th century could be identified as follows: The century began with seven great powers. After the Second World War, it became a bipolar one. By 1991, the world saw a sole power or a unipolar moment emerge. By 2023, we are now talking of a multipolar world.
World Polarity and the Market Structure THEORY – A STRANGE PARALLELISM
The development of the past one and a quarter of a century seems to have made the discussion as an analogy of the market structure theory. In the imperfect form of the market competition, we may classify or see the market may pass through the following forms: (i) Monopoly: No competition at all. So, the monopolist can determine both the supply and price of the product: (ii) Duopoly: Two competitors are in the market, and (iii) Oligopoly: few product or service producers exist in the market simultaneously.
From the beginning of the 20th century, the world was multipolar, though all powers were not equal. After WW2, that transformed into a bipolar world. In 1991, the unipower scenario was established. From that phase of one power predominance, the world has now moved to the stages of bipolarity and multipolarity.
What Does Post-Ukraine Period Hold for Us?
Based on the present trend, it may be assumed that the march of multipolarity in the world will not end with only the three powers. There are clear indications that more powers are likely to join the race to create further great power centers in the World. Top among them is India, and soon, it is expected to emerge as the 3rd largest economy in the world. Mr. Mukesh Ambani, the Chairman of Reliance Industries and one of the wealthiest Indians, predicted that India will become a $35 trillion economy by 2047.
A few other countries, like Indonesia, the Middle East combined, Brazil, and Poland, have the potential to emerge as great powers by the middle of the 21st century. What about Japan and some European powers? Maybe many people may not be betting on them as their present decline will continue to make them less and less powerful in the future. Any eventual emergence of the EU as a single political unit may hold some semblance of great power.
So when can the world move into a tripolar phase from that multipolarity phase again? Indeed, this may happen as soon as 2050. At the moment, we can foresee three powers, namely the US, China, and India, that will emerge as the most dominant power in the world. But there is a possibility that by 2075, the world may again head into a bipolar moment. If someone wants me to bait my intuition on one country for the most dominant position at that point, I will do it for India.
Rabi Narayan Kar is Principal, Shyam Lal College, University of Delhi
Munim Kumar Barai teaches Graduate School of Management and Director of Ritsumeikan Center for Asia Pacific Studies, Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University (APU), Oita, Japan
(The views are personal)
