A close contest in Himachal likely

With the Election Commission finalizing the dates for the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, the State is likely to witness a keen contest between the Congress and the BJP, which at present is in power. The overall mood amongst the people is for a Change but intense infighting within the Congress camp can assist the BJP which otherwise is facing a huge anti-incumbency factor. Chief Minister Jairam Thakur shall have to do his best if he wants another term since the election there is being contested on his five year’s performance and not on the popularity factor of the Prime Minister. There are multiple issues, all related to economic reasons such as unemployment, rising prices, inflation and moreover in a state where many families send their sons to the armed forces, the Agniveer debate could also become an issue that could influence the final outcome. Himachal has traditionally been electing the BJP and Congress every five years like it used to be the case in Uttrakhand also. However, the BJP is putting all its might to ensure that this trend like in Uttrakhand gets reversed and it remains in power. The BJP national president, Jagat Prakash Nadda as also Union Minister Anurag Thakur are both from the region and therefore, they too may put in their maximum efforts to help their party which after Prem Kumar Dhumal has not been able to find a suitable state level leader. It is also the first Assembly poll after the demise of Virbhadra Singh, easily the tallest leader who because of his immense popularity led the Congress campaign from the front. His wife, Pratibha Singh is the PCC president but does not enjoy the same hold over the voters as her late husband did. There is also a tussle in the Congress between the Pratibha camp and that of Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, a sitting MLA and former Chief of the party who enjoys the support of most of the sitting party MLAs. The Congress is expected to finalise nearly 55 to 60 seats out of the total of 68 by Sunday evening and expects that some defections from the BJP may take place in the coming few days. The party suffered a setback when its working president, Harsh Mahajan had recently joined the BJP and some other senior leaders gave statements which were not received well by the party high command. The AAP factor is also expected to have an impact in the polls. After winning Punjab in such an impressive manner, political observers thought that AAP would emerge as a major force in Himachal as well but this does not seem to be happening. But the presence of AAP candidates in many constituencies can harm the Congress prospects as they too would be eating into anti-BJP votes. The BJP has a well thought through strategy which if implemented could reap rich political dividends. The Congress on the other hand is mostly dependent on both Sukhu and Pratibha Singh and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, whose public meeting earlier this week was extremely well attended. The mood is for a change and it is to be seen how the Congress is able to translate this into votes. 

Pankaj Vohra