This year is going to see a series of Assembly polls, the most crucial being the ones in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam. Barring Assam and Kerala, the Congress really has little role except that of a supporting partner, leaving the Trinamool Congress and the DMK to take on the BJP juggernaut.
The most interesting and high-voltage battle of course is going to be West Bengal, the groundwork for which began much earlier with Mamata Banerjee taking on the BJP at every step. Given the way Amit Shah operates, he had begun working for these Assembly elections the very minute the last round of polls got over. Bengal has been very much on both his itinerary and radar ever since. In fact, after the Northeast, J&K and Uttar Pradesh, this is going to be the BJP’s next turn-around project. After this the focus will shift south. Work has already begun in Telangana and Tamil Nadu will be next.
It is this kind of grassroots planning and strategy that the Congress lacks. Given that the Congress is much more of a pan-India party than the BJP even today, it would have a much easier task, building on its cadre and strength. But of course, first it has to build on its leadership.
As things stand today, the fight in West Bengal is definitely between the TMC and the BJP, with the Congress-Left alliance reduced to the role of spoilers. The reason why Mamata will not go in for an alliance with them is that she does not want to unite the anti-TMC vote. That, and the fact that the genesis of her politics has been stridently anti-Left and also that she sees no future in doing business with a Rahul Gandhi-led Congress.
Assam is the one state where the Congress can lead the fight against the BJP. The CAA backlash would help its cause but Tarun Gogoi’s recent demise has left it bereft of a charismatic leader. Especially when the other side has Himanta Biswa Sarma leading the charge. However, this is the only poll-going state where it can play a meaningful role but so far there seems to be little move in that direction.
Will the Covid-19 pandemic, the long lockdown and the economy have a role in any of the coming state elections? We saw some change in the rhetoric in Bihar when jobs and unemployment took precedence over all other talk. Will the same be repeated in the next set of state elections? One is not sure, as it is early days yet. But looking at the highly polarised campaign being run in West Bengal, one is doubtful.
The year will begin with a focus on vaccines and the economy (with the Budget session round the corner) but mid-course, once the state polls begin, it’s going to be back to the politics of old.