“This book is being published after the Lok Sabha elections held in May 2019. The previous government has been re-elected for a second five-year term (2019-24) with a substantial majority… This is a relatively short list of agendas for the re-elected government.”
Bimal Jalan is a respected economist. Having held several positions in government (Finance Secretary, Chief Economic Adviser, RBI Governor) and quasi-government (Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to PM; Chairman, Expenditure Management Commission), he is indeed a “government” economist, warranting use of the word “insider” in the sub-title. He also had a stint in Parliament, as a nominated MP.
Post-1991, I can reel off names of half-a-dozen important books written by Bimal Jalan: India’s Economic Crisis, 1992; India’s Economic Policy, 2000; India’s Economy in the New Millennium, 2002; The Future of India, 2006; India’s Politics, 2008; and Emerging India, 2013. There were others, pre-1991 and edited. This book is on India, then and now, with eighteen essays classified under three heads of “The Decade of Industrialization”, “The Decade of Liberalization and Globalization” and “India in the Twenty-First Century”, with six essays under each head. “Then” implies historical and is subject to interpretation. One definition of “then” might be that “then” means pre-1991 and “now” is anything that came after 1991.
A couple of decades ago, that might have been an acceptable interpretation. But the 1991 reforms occurred almost thirty years ago. An alternative interpretation, one that Bimal Jalan implicitly seems to have adopted is that “then” means the 20th century and “now” means the 21st. At least, that is how the essays have been classified. For the twelve essays under the first two heads, everything said in this book has been stated in a much better way by Bimal Jalan himself, in the earlier books I listed. What’s the utility of revisiting the themes again, though, with the passage of time, one might have a slightly different perspective? The answer is given in the Preface. “As a witness of India’s economic trajectory through the decades, I decided to put together for the readers my writings that reflect how India has progressed since Independence to the present times. In doing so, I was principally guided by two considerations: the first was to cover different subject areas that may be of interest to the general reader in addition to experts in economics, politics and administration.” In other words, the target audience is different, perhaps one that is unlikely to have read his earlier books.
The third head is different and has six essays on exchange rates, the role of Parliament, ethics of banking, politics and governance, a prosperity template and a future agenda of reforms. (Those aren’t exact titles of the essays. I have paraphrased them.) These themes remain topical. But the question to ask is: When was this book completed? As the quote at the beginning illustrates, the manuscript was certainly completed in 2019, perhaps even in 2018. This is a dilemma several authors and publishers have faced and continue to face. Covid-19 has made publications schedules go haywire, with few books published in calendar year 2020 and many publications postponed. This raises a couple of problems. One, the book doesn’t recognise and factor in government initiatives since May 2019. Two, with Bimal Jalan’s experience and expertise, one would have liked essays on — indirect tax reform (read GST), Union-State fiscal relations (read Finance Commission), government expenditure management and fiscal policy and health sector issues (broader than Covid-19 alone). Reading a book published towards the end of 2020, with no mention of these issues, leaves one dissatisfied.
If one is especially interested in the “now”, the relevant essay is the last one, titled, “The Future is Ours”. In the various agenda items, we have, “It is also desirable to reduce the political powers of ministers and their vested interests in the allocation of public resources… In practice there has been substantial erosion in the ability of Parliament/ legislatures to hold ministers responsible, either collectively or individually, for the decisions taken by them on behalf of their ministries… Similar autonomous institutions should be created for the allocation of all valuable national resources, including oil and gas. The government, even at the highest level, should refrain from giving directions to such institutions…
A further measure for the greater empowerment of civil service personnel, while reducing their number over time, is to reform the procedure for launching vigilance inquiries and the number of agencies involved in such investigations… The basic issue that needs to be tackled to improve the morale of civil servants is that of the ‘separation of powers’ within the executive — between ministers and civil servants — in so far as postings, transfers, promotions and other similar administrative matters are concerned… In order to reduce the present built-in incentive for the fragmentation of parties and to improve governance in the future, it is of utmost importance that the anti-defection law be made applicable to all parties and the so-called independent members who choose to join a government in power… Over time, the number of ministries and departments involved in regulating almost all segments of the economy, society, foreign affairs, defence and border security have expanded enormously.”
Bimal Jalan has considerable experience of working within the executive and even within legislature. Delivering reforms is often not about “what”, but about “how” and “when”. There is a political economy of reform and a political economy of resistance. All reforms are fundamentally grounded not only in the executive, but also in the legislature and the judiciary. There won’t be substantial disagreement with the statements just mentioned (within quotes). Why has it been so difficult to bring about change? How was it managed in 1991, when some change was actually introduced? Bimal Jalan is no ordinary academic economist. He has been a practitioner. Yet, in all his books, including the present one, he has been reticent about the toolkit for reforms. There are others who can write about the template, not too many who can write about the “how”.
Bibek Debroy is the Chairman of the PM’s Economic Council.