SAN FRANCISCO, December 30 — While artificial intelligence dominated headlines, 2025 marked a pivotal year for quantum technology as it transitioned from theoretical research to a tangible, high-stakes global race. Major tech corporations unveiled significant hardware breakthroughs, even as experts warn of a critical preparedness gap for the coming quantum era.
What major quantum advances happened in 2025?
The United Nations’ designation of 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology was accompanied by a surge of corporate announcements. Microsoft unveiled its first quantum chip, aiming for a million qubits. Google introduced the Willow chip, which can execute an algorithm 13,000 times more quickly than a supercomputer. With the goal of reducing error correction costs by 90%, Amazon unveiled the Ocelot microprocessor. By 2029, IBM will have developed a framework for a fault-tolerant quantum computer, indicating rapid and competitive advancement.
Why is geopolitical competition intensifying?
Analysts point to a significant funding and patent gap, highlighting a new technological arms race. China has earmarked $15.3 billion in public quantum funding, over eight times the U.S. pledge of $1.9 billion. Patent filings suggest China is rapidly closing the technical gap. Nobel laureate John Martinis warned China is mere “nanoseconds” behind, raising concerns that the West, caught flat-footed in AI, could face a strategic surprise in the higher-stakes quantum domain.
What is the most immediate quantum threat?
The primary near-term risk is cryptographic. Shor’s algorithm, in theory, could allow a powerful quantum computer to break widely used internet encryption. A Bain & Company survey found 73% of IT security professionals see this as a material risk within five years, with 32% citing three years. As “post-quantum” security standards are still being created, only 9% of respondents have a plan to address it, indicating a serious lack of readiness.
When will quantum computers become practically useful?
Industry forecasts on utility remain wide-ranging, reflecting core technical challenges in stabilizing error-prone qubits. Some have proposed timetables of 15–30 years, such as Jensen Huang of Nvidia, however he later changed this to “future years.” Significant utility is still at least five years away, according to the most optimistic industry forecasts. McKinsey estimates the technology could generate up to $97 billion in revenue by 2035, underscoring the long-term economic stakes.
FAQs:
Q: What is a qubit?
A: A quantum bit, or “qubit,” can exist in a superposition of both states simultaneously, unlike a traditional computer bit (0 or 1), which enables it to evaluate a wide range of possibilities at incredibly fast speeds.
Q: Which companies are leading in quantum computing?
A: In 2025, Microsoft, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, and IBM all announced major hardware or roadmap advancements, joining a growing field of specialized startups.
Q: How much is the quantum technology market worth?
A: Estimates differ: Bain & Company estimates the potential market value unlocked by the larger ecosystem at up to $250 billion, while McKinsey anticipates up to $97 billion in revenue by 2035.
Q: What should businesses do now about quantum?
A: Experts advise putting urgent emphasis on “post-quantum cryptography” in order to protect sensitive data from future decryption and to start developing talent pipelines and strategic understanding.