After the highly dramatic breakup of the NCP with a bulk of the party tying up with the BJP, the question on the Opposition’s mind is who will go next? It’s clear that the BJP is out on a spree to woo/coerce allies and build up the NDA. The NCP with so many of its members facing ED cases was a low hanging fruit. Besides Ajit Pawar had flirted with the BJP not too long ago. If the rumour mill is to be believed, the BJP is now focusing on Bihar and UP. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s party is the only one that has done business with the BJP before and there are some members who are not happy with the shift back to the RJD. Hence, this faction could be easily persuaded to split the JD(U) and throw in their lot with the BJP. As for Uttar Pradesh, there is a buzz that the RLD leader Jayant Chaudhury is being wooed to cross over. Although Jayant’s politics are at a variance with the BJP’s, he has realized that being with the Samajwadi Party is not a comfortable fit either. In fact, his own vote bank, the Jats and the farmers had no trouble supporting the BJP in the Assembly elections that followed soon after the farmers’ agitation and the Lakhimpur Kheri incident. Jayant has, however, denied that he would be allying with the NDA, but the BJP does have mysterious powers of persuasion. Also, no one knows which way Mayawati—also under the ED hammer—will turn.
Another calculation the Opposition should take into account is that election strategist Prashant Kishor is said to be working for the Modi campaign once again. And he has a very good equation with the BRS chief, K. Chandrashekar Rao, whose daughter Kavitha is facing an ED case. You only have to connect the dots and wonder if there is another low hanging fruit here in Telangana, somewhat on the lines of what happened with the NCP?
There is also speculation that the Badals and the Akali Dal may end up back in the NDA fold on election eve. This would suit both the BJP and SAD as the latter cannot tie up with the Congress or the Aam Admi Party. Either Sukhbir Badal goes it alone or else he throws in his lot with the NDA.
Given all this, what about the famed Opposition unity that was showcased in Patna not too long ago, with many of the NCP rebels part of the photo-op? The Opposition leaders are meeting up in Bangalore soon to take stock and keep the cadre motivated. Rahul Gandhi’s continuing disqualification ensures that he is not a candidate for Prime Ministership. To be fair to the Congress leader, Rahul has already ruled this out himself on earlier occasions, disqualification or not. The blueprint at Patna was a smart one where the Opposition parties decided not to go with a PM face, but instead unite on issues and go in for some sort of seat sharing to ensure that there is a 1:1 battle against the BJP. Now this is easier said than done, as the regional parties feel that they are better placed to take on the BJP in their respective states than the Congress. The Congress for its part (and not without reason) will argue that it’s the only pan-India party in the Opposition with a sizeable vote share and hence deserves a chunk of the seats. If the Opposition leadership can resolve this and placate all the egos involved, then the BJP will have cause to worry, its new-found allies notwithstanding. But it’s a tall ask.