The Maharashtra crisis may have taken political circles by surprise, but it is evident that what is happening in the state is the outcome of a series of developments, which also indicate the active involvement of former Chief Minister and strongman, Sharad Pawar. It is a well-known fact that Pawar senior is one of the most unpredictable and deceptive politicians of the current era, and therefore the victim card he is seeking to play does not suit his political profile. There is a lot of logic in the argument that he was responsible for creating the current situation. It is unthinkable that Ajit Pawar, his nephew, could have acted on his own, and the reason why Sharad Pawar’s involvement in the matter cannot be treated as unfounded, is because of the following reasons. Pawar senior’s loyalists, Dilip Walse Patil (he was Sharad’s PA at one time), Chaggan Bhujbal and Praful Patel, amongst others, could not have shifted their position, without his approval. Those who are now being projected as being loyal to him such as Jayant Patil and Anil Deshmukh were never in his camp, but those who were opposed to him, within the power politics of the Nationalist Congress Party. Jayant Patil belongs to a very influential family and his father would have been the Chief Minister, even before Vasant Dada Patil, had it not been for political circumstances of that period.
While it is difficult to establish Sharad Pawar’s complicity in the entire “Lotus’’ operation, there are events which could help in understanding this defection. Pawar senior has been posturing all along that he was with the larger Opposition alliance against the BJP, but his recent two-hour meeting with a leading industrialist, was extremely significant in the current context. Knowledgeable sources maintain that in the meeting, the issue of the NCP lending support to the BJP-Eknath Shinde government was discussed and certain conditions were put forward by senior Pawar. While the matter was still under consideration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attacked the NCP at Bhopal after his return from the United States, thus fast-forwarding the proposal. The blueprint was put into operation on Sunday, with Ajit Pawar taking oath of office with eight others, thus creating an erroneous impression that he had ditched his uncle. This is possibly not true. If there is no evidence of senior Pawar being hand in glove with his nephew, there is no evidence to disprove it either. Pawar has replicated what his political mentor, Yashwant Rao Chavan did in 1969, when the Congress split just before the Presidential elections. Chavan voted for Indira Gandhi’s candidate, V.V. Giri while the rest of Maharashtra (at his instance) voted for the official Congress nominee, Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy. Like Chavan before him, Pawar is a perfect fence sitter who says something and does something else. He is attempting to create an impression that he has been cheated by his nephew, when the facts could be otherwise. Therefore, to reach any conclusion at this stage may be very pre-mature. Even in 1978, when Pawar became the Chief Minister for the first time after toppling the Vasant Dada Patil-Nasikrao Tirpude led government, he had been at his deceptive best. He left Delhi after assuring Chavan that he would not do anything to rock the boat, but on landing in Bombay, made his intentions known. Chavan was surprised at the sudden change of intention but that is how Maharashtra politics has always been. Later, Pawar helped Chavan to get elected to the Lok Sabha from Satara once again on the Congress (S) symbol, when Indira Gandhi was making her return to the big stage. In the present context, Pawar’s calculations along with those who have gone on the other side would be to first save the flock from going to jail, for their alleged involvement in cases that are being probed by central agencies. A political analyst on a TV show described the Ajit Pawar group as the ED faction of the NCP. In the estimation of the Pawar family, going with the BJP would be a safer bet since all indications were there that the saffron party may return to power at the Centre after the Parliamentary polls.
At least by all accounts, the BJP would be the single largest party and thus shall lead any government formed after the Lok Sabha elections. The chances of the Congress in sharp contrast, are very less. Thus, if the NCP aligned with the ruling party, it would be in its own interest. However, the other side of the matter is also equally significant. If the Congress decides to break its alliance with the NCP, Pawar’s party would be the loser. It is a known fact that the NCP’s existence has largely been there on account of the support it receives from the Congress. Till the late Ahmed Patel was Sonia Gandhi’s political adviser, he ensured that many winning seats of the Congress were contested by the NCP, something which kept Pawar afloat. The situation was somewhat similar to what it was between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. The BJP fed on the Shiv Sena support to emerge as the dominant party in the alliance, probably amongst the reasons which led to the two allies parting company.
Thus, Pawar without the backing of the Congress and the BJP without the support of the Shiv Sena, may be vulnerable, something which only can be established in an election. Nevertheless, if the Congress and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) continue with their alliance, the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra could throw many surprises. For that to happen, the Congress, particularly Rahul Gandhi, should stop calling Sena communal and should also end attacks on Veer Sarvarkar. These are politically unnecessary and could sour the relationship between two present allies of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), even if Sharad Pawar is ousted from this alliance. Pawar’s posturing is for the consumption of some opposition leaders, not well versed with his deceptive and unpredictable ways. After Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra has the maximum number of Lok Sabha seats, and hence it is very important for any political party to win there.
The BJP and Sena had won over 42 of the 48 seats in 2019, a very difficult feat indeed. The Congress and the Shiv Sena may strive to do something similar, if all remains well between the two. The induction of Ajit Pawar in the Maharashtra government is bound to create problems, both for the Eknath Shinde faction of the Sena as well as the BJP. Nine ministerial berths have gone to the NCP faction, and this has been at the cost of those in the Sena (Shinde) and the BJP. This development could lead to disenchantment in these parties and impact the electoral prospects. The Congress should immediately bring in experienced leaders like Sushil Kumar Shinde to help formulate its Maharashtra strategy. In any case, the situation in the state is unfolding, and many new dimensions of the crisis may crop up in the coming days.