Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming trip to Russia on July 8-9 for a bilateral summit with President Vladimir Putin is crucial for India’s strategic planning, given the expected escalation of the Ukraine conflict and the ongoing Israeli military operations against Hamas in Gaza.
Additionally, Pakistan, led by Munir Akram, known for his anti-India stance, is set to join the UN Security Council as a non-permanent member for a two-year term starting January 2025. Pakistan’s ally China may use this opportunity to either label Indian nationals as global terrorists, as it has done previously or to propose a resolution concerning Jammu and Kashmir.
Additionally, India will not participate in the International Human Rights Council in Geneva next year. The last instance of India’s absence from the Council was in 2018, during which a report was issued concerning alleged human rights abuses in Jammu and Kashmir.
India needs to be proactive in multilateral forums as Pakistan’s Akram teams up with China to corner India at the UN.
Due to the current diplomatic situation, PM Modi chose to visit Russia (his last visit was in 2019) for bilateral talks with President Putin. This decision follows indications at the G-7 summit in Italy that Western involvement in Ukraine could escalate, potentially involving military equipment and personnel.
President Putin has unequivocally stated that he will supply weapons to opponents of the West if tensions escalate in Crimea or within Russia and has not ruled out the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons.
The July summit between PM Modi and President Putin focuses more on exchanging worldviews than achieving bilateral outcomes. India must navigate swiftly in international diplomacy, given the potential rise of Labour in the UK and expected challenges for French President Emmanuel Macron from the right wing.
Meanwhile, the US gears up for a contentious presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Given Western pressure on Russia over Ukraine, India faces complexity. Putin seeks détente with Xi Jinping amid Beijing’s pressures in Russia’s east. Despite potential Western criticism, India keeps channels open with Russia, crucial as most military supplies are from Moscow.
As the Chinese Navy extends its presence in the Indian Ocean Region through the BRI with Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, Indian diplomacy must act decisively and proactively, avoiding status quo or indecision.
