The Israeli military will probably fail to meet the deadline for its withdrawal from southern Lebanon on Sunday, January 28, according to the conditions of the ceasefire deal that ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah two months ago. The Israeli forces have not yet evacuated regions east of southern Lebanon as the evacuation schedule, which was part of the agreement brokered in late November, has taken longer than 60 days.
Delay in Withdrawing
The ceasefire agreement, which came into effect on November 27, 2023, stipulated the terms of the Israeli withdrawal and the deployment of the Lebanese army, supported by United Nations peacekeepers, in southern Lebanon. According to the agreement, Israel was to withdraw from the area, while Hezbollah was to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border.
However, even after the deadline has elapsed, Israel has pulled out troops only from coastal areas while there is continued military presence in other regions further in from the coast. On Saturday, the Lebanese army accused the Israeli military of procrastinating in executing the withdrawal as this has also caused delays to the full execution of the deal.
Israeli Government blames Lebanon for Delays
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained the delay by claiming that withdrawal will be continued beyond Sunday. Netanyahu clarified that withdrawal is contingent on the full deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon and their capacity to enforce the terms of the agreement. The Israeli government pointed out that the failure of Hezbollah to vacate the area beyond the Litani River has made the situation worse.
According to Netanyahu, the phased withdrawal will be done in consultation with the United States. The U.S. has been part of the observation of the ceasefire agreement implementation. It will continue to observe the implementation and is likely to support Israel as it continues to withdraw.
Accusation of Violation Escalates Tension
Hezbollah Claimed Israel for violating the Truce
Hezbollah, the militant group dominating large portions of southern Lebanon, has expressed discontent with Israel’s presence in the region. Ali Fayad, Hezbollah legislator, said that Israel is “taking advantage of this delay to carry out a scorched earth policy along the border and to prevent the return of displaced Lebanese citizens to their homes.”.
The group had warned that in case the group failed to withdraw on the deadline of 60 days, it would be a breach of the ceasefire which would attract a label of being a breach of Lebanese sovereignty. Despite this rhetoric, Hezbollah has not threatened the resumption of hostilities; instead, they called upon the Lebanese state to use all the tools available for repossessing land from Israeli hands.
International Intervention and Escalation of Tensions
In a phone call on Saturday with French President Emmanuel Macron, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called on Israel to comply with the terms of the truce and put an end to its constant breaches, including the demolition of border towns. Aoun once again reiterated that Israel should respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and ensure stability in southern Lebanon.
Macron, the French head whose administration has been involved in monitoring the ceasefire re-emphasized all the parties’ adherence to their commitments and undertaking to meet the terms of the agreement. His office expressed concerns with the continuing tensions appealing further resolution of the dispute to prevent further escalation.
A Fragile Ceasefire and the Road Ahead
The truce largely remains in effect despite these strains and both parties’ incessant allegations of each other violating the agreement. Hezbollah’s armed posts are, supposedly, being bombarded under the ongoing strikes that Israel claims against its targets.
Lebanese media claim that the forces of Israel destroyed infrastructures as well in those regions they occupied and that deteriorates the whole scenario further.
The truce came after a two-month deadlock of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah since a series of border clashes that began after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. The attack by Hamas along with skirmishes already ongoing with Hezbollah left the two sides battling in general conflict.
With the ceasefire still fresh, the international community is not letting its foot off the pedal in seeking the full implementation of the agreement, while whether both sides would comply with the full implementation is still vague. The fate of southern Lebanon thus remains to be seen with both the Israeli military and Hezbollah posturing for gains.
