The BJP fell short of its electoral ambitions this Lok Sabha election, bagging 240 seats—significantly fewer than the 370 it aimed for and well below the 303 won in 2019. The outcome could have been different had Mayawati’s BSP into the INDIA bloc.
A significant portion of the BJP’s lost seats came from Uttar Pradesh, a state it has historically dominated. In 2019, the BJP clinched 62 seats, but this time, it secured only 33, with its vote share dipping to 41.3%.
Mayawati’s BSP, although winning no seats despite contesting 79, garnered votes that surpassed the winning margins in 16 seats, all clinched by the BJP or its allies. Had she joined the opposition, these votes might have swayed, potentially reducing the BJP’s tally by 16 seats.
The 16 constituencies include Akbarpur, Aligarh, Amroha, Bansgaon, Bhadohi, Bijnor, Deoria, Farrukhabad, Fatepur Sikri, Hardoi, Meerut, Mirzapur, Misrikh, Phulpur, Shahjahanpur, and Unnao. In several instances, BSP candidates garnered substantial votes despite losing, significantly narrowing the BJP’s victory margin.
For instance, in Bansgaon, Farrukhabad, and Phulpur, where winning margins were under 5,000, the BSP secured over 64,000, 45,000, and 82 votes, respectively. Losing these seats would have left the BJP with 224 seats, making the path to government formation more challenging.
Furthermore, this scenario would have underscored the pivotal role of the INDIA bloc, comprising the TDP and the JDU, as potential ‘kingmakers’. With the TDP securing 16 seats and the JDU 12, the coalition could have garnered 265 seats, just shy of a majority.
Although the opposition, including the Congress, met in Delhi to strategize, flipping 28 seats may not suffice for a government claim. Nevertheless, it could disrupt the BJP’s plans and assert the opposition’s influence in the new government formation.