The gruesome Kolkata rape cum murder of a young junior doctor and the unending protests throughout the country have put the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in a very awkward position, wherein the Saffron Brigade is asking for her resignation.
Although President Droupadi Murmu in media reports has not mentioned the Kolkata incident in particular, yet she has expressed her deep anguish and concern over the rising crimes against women in the country, stating that “enough is enough’’. She said that many rapes have taken place since the Nirbhaya case, and all this had to stop. The mindsets had to change. In the backdrop of wide condemnation of the incident, the BJP has been mounting pressure on Mamata to quit while she has decided to fight it out, by declaring that if Bengal was set on fire, the flames could spread to other parts of the country as well.
This is her way of letting the BJP and its allies know, that the ramifications of their agitation could be in other regions too and therefore, this kind of political activity was not going to benefit anyone as such. However, one thing is certain that ever since Mamata came to power, this is for the first time, she is under a direct threat, and within her own party also, there are voices which do not concur with the manner in which the government and the police handled the aftermath of the brutal rape. The case is being investigated by the Central Bureau of Investigation and obviously a lot of things, in the process, though not related to the incident could come out of the probe.
As stated earlier in the Sunday Guardian column, the BJP and its allies were not going to gain by these protests. Instead, the Left parties which ruled Bengal for decades, could be on the road to revival, and thus the vacuum created by Mamata’s losing popularity, would be filled by these parties rather than the BJP. Bengal and Punjab are two states, which have always by and large voted differently than many parts of the country, and there are not many occasions when the party in power at the Centre and that in the state have been the same.
After 1972 when the Congress won Bengal under Indira Gandhi’s leadership and when Siddhartha Shankar Ray became the Chief Minister, the grand old party has never been in power. That means for virtually half a century, the Congress has been in the Opposition in the State. In Punjab, also there are very few occasions when it was controlling the State and the Centre simultaneously. In other words, if Mamata is ousted and the Trinamool Congress ceases to be in control, the natural corollary would be to see the Left back in the saddle, though the BJP would do its best to increase its influence. The problem with the Saffron Brigade is that it is not realizing that the consequences of Mamata’s removal could be not beneficial to it in any manner. Moreover, there could be numerous problems that may arise if one was to presume that she would be out.
The presumption is also far-fetched since Mamata would fight it till the end, and resist any move or moves to unseat her, or would allow any other party or combinations to wrest power there. However, politics would never cease, and if the Left, which was dormant but had its cadres and unions intact, steps up its activity, it would certainly make some inroads. It is true that the agitation in Bengal was not led by any single leader, but it was impacting the way people are thinking, and they certainly do not endorse, the role of the TMC government, in this particular incident.
Therefore, the TMC has to first unite itself before thinking about taking on its adversaries. The BJP’s role is more in the media and less on the streets where it is the Left which is gaining. The happenings in Bengal could also lead to some developments within the INDIA bloc as well, which may force the Congress to change its approach and strategy concerning Bengal.
Prior to the rape and murder incident, Mamata was attempting to create an anti-Congress lobby within the INDIA bloc. She had been trying to isolate the Congress by making a public display of her meetings with Sharad Pawar, Akhilesh Yadav, MK Stalin and the Kejriwal family. It was evident that what she was aiming at was to create a perception that the Congress may have secured the highest number of seats amongst Opposition parties, but so far as the leadership of the INDIA bloc was concerned, the matter was open and had not been settled. There are many within the Congress, who believe that it was time for the party to review its relationship with both Mamata and the Trinamool Congress.
In the wake of Mamata’s dip in popularity and in order to regain some of its lost ground, the Congress should distance itself from her and send the correct political message, by supporting Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury in the State. Adhir, who was leader of the Congress in the Lok Sabha after the 2019 polls, lost this time because Mamata had put up former Cricketer, Yusuf Pathan against him. Adhir is a fighter and is one Congress leader who has held his ground despite being humiliated by the Central leadership. He is the only one who can strengthen the party in the State. Therefore, by endorsing him, the Congress can both distance itself from the Trinamool and also send a direct signal to her that she should not take the grand old party for granted.