This week fetched couple of challenges for global affairs with intensified violence between Israel and Hamas despite continuous requests and directives from the UN to announce a ceasefire immediately; Maldives under serious political turmoil; and China helping in normalising present Iran-Pakistan tiff.
After showing off its ‘true’ love for China, Maldives is under political turmoil now as its president Ibrahim Muizzu is facing impeachment. The opposition-led parliament has initiated impeachment proceedings against President Muizzu, accusing him of authoritarian behaviour and abuse of power. The opposition alleges that Muizzu has violated the constitution of Maldives and undermined democratic values. The impeachment process is a significant development in the political landscape of Maldives and has raised concerns about the state of democracy and governance in the country.
Mohammed Muizzu was elected to power last year on the back of an aggressive ‘India Out’ policy that has seen the Maldives drawing closer to China. Muizzu, who now faces an impeachment threat over his anti-India (and consequently pro-China) stance, had also ordered Indian troops stationed in Maldives to leave by 15march 2024. The latest flashpoint is that Maldives has given a Chinese ‘research’ ship, the Xian Yang Hong 03, (which is flagged as a spy ship) its permission to dock in its capital, Male. I had mentioned this apprehension in one of my previous columns that, “His pro-China attitude will not only pose challenges to the neutrality of IOR, I am also worried Maldives will prove to be next Sri Lanka or Pakistan if it falls in to the trap of ‘string of pearl’ strategy of China.” I had also mentioned, “It seems that apart from the bilateral relations between India and Maldives, the regional integrity may suffer heavily. The victory of the pro-China candidate Mohamed Muizzu, who was previously the mayor of Male, would certainly impact the geopolitics of the IOR region.” By pushing India out and providing its bases to China will definitely prove very costly to Maldives, hope the other leaders understand this.
Muizzu still seems to be unwilling to step back from his strong anti-India position as the Maldives delegation arrived in New Delhi this week is still demanding Indian troops to leave their nation. Additionally, the news of Pakistan announcing its financial support to Maldives amused me. Maldives has already faced a huge daunt on its tourism-based economy as the world shifted its eyes towards Lakshadweep after Indian Prime Minister’s social media post. Now it is facing a serious political crisis. India is still ready to normalise the relations as Indian External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, mentioned in an interview this week that both the sides can sit together, and resolve the situation. India’s goodwill for Maldives can be seen in its recent action plan. In the recent interim budget announcement, India earmarked INR 600 crore for Maldives for this fiscal year as compared to INR 400 crore (and spent INR 770 crores as financial support) allocated in 2023-24, which is an increase reflecting its ongoing commitment despite strained relations between the two nations.
India’s aid and resources have played a significant role in promoting public welfare, providing humanitarian aid, assisting during disasters, and addressing illegal maritime activities in Maldives. Also, India provided advanced light helicopters and a Dornier aircraft to support various operations in Maldives. Muizzu needs to understand that his fatal mistake may prove detrimental for peace and stability of Maldives as well as for the entire region.
The ongoing Israel-Hamas war is also proving damaging for the peace and stability of the world. Despite requests and directives of the UN, none of the two parties involved in a gory conflict is ready to cease. Amid this conflict, the recent tensions between Iran and Pakistan have additionally raised concerns about the possibility of the tensions spreading from West Asia to South Asia. Recent events with respect to Israel-Hamas conflict have emphasized Iran’s position as an unpredictable player in global politics due to its backing of local proxies such as Hamas and the Houthis. Meanwhile, China has offered its help to mediate between the two nations. It has strong ties with both Pakistan and Iran, positioning it well to help ease tensions. China played a significant role earlier in the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry has expressed Beijing’s readiness to contribute positively to calming the current state of affairs between Iran and Pakistan during a press conference held this week. But this may impact the bilateral and multilateral dimensions considering both Iran and Pakistan. For example, India and Iran enjoy a good strategic partnership, and this commitment was recently reaffirmed when S. Jaishankar visited Iran in January 2024. India and Iran are developing Chahbahar Port, a regional transit hub, that directly strives with China-funded Gwadar port in Pakistan. China has made a smart move to contain India indirectly and this needs a constructive reply. However, growing Chinese influence in the Islamic world may impact the existing bilateral and multilateral formations causing challenges for the US.
Though achieving the lasting peace in global politics seems to be a far-fetched dream, the leaders need to keep working for the same. Even a little progress and achievement in this regard makes the world a better place to live!
The author is Professor, School of International Studies, JNU