The Lok Sabha result outcome has changed the picture this time. Many new equations were seen before and after the elections. Given the current political situation across the country, predicting the direction of Maharashtra politics until the elections is increasingly challenging. Both the All India Alliance and the NDA face potential fractures. If both alliances break apart, the BJP is likely to benefit.
Following the Lok Sabha elections, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena might separate from the Mahavikas Aaghadi alliance. Whether Thackeray will align with the BJP or contest independently remains uncertain. Nevertheless, he is gearing up to contest all 288 seats.
For the BJP, Thackeray’s separation from Congress, in any form, is seen as advantageous.
Experts note that during the Lok Sabha elections, Uddhav Thackeray’s UBT had conflicts with Congress over seat allocations. Despite these conflicts, seat distribution was managed, but UBT incurred losses while Congress and Sharad Pawar’s party gained. UBT managed to win only 9 out of 21 seats.
While Congress won 13 out of 17. Whereas last time Congress had only one seat. Pawar’s NCP was successful in 8 out of 10. UBT suffered the biggest loss. It came down from 19 to 9. If seat sharing happens in the assembly according to the results of Lok Sabha, then UBT will be in the biggest loss. Congress will claim to contest the maximum number of seats and will also demand the post of CM. UBT feels that it did not gain much from the alliance while Congress and Pawar’s party benefited from it. Sharad Pawar has said that smaller parties should join the Congress. Thackeray’s Shiv Sena also fears that if Pawar’s NCP merges with the Congress, it will become weak. Experts also believe that if Pawar’s party merges with the Congress and Sharad Pawar is made the CM face, Uddhav Thackeray will be weakened. Sharad Pawar has also given a statement in Pune on Thursday that he is trying to take charge of Maharashtra. The meaning being drawn from this statement of Pawar is that he wants to become the CM of Maharashtra once again.
This is possible only if Congress supports him. Congress will also agree to Pawar’s name. On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray is trying to become the CM again. UBT spokesperson Sanjay Raut today again staked claim to the CM’s chair and said that his leader Uddhav Thackeray will be the next CM of Maharashtra. This is being considered a direct message to Congress. UBT feels that they are being weakened. In this situation, Thackeray can separate from the Congress alliance. If Thackeray separates, BJP will try its best to bring him together. The current situation of BJP is such that it will accept all the conditions of Thackeray.
Along with giving Thackeray the CM post, BJP can also give him a higher share of seats. Leaders like Devendra Fadnavis can be brought to Delhi. BJP is also not seeing any benefit from Ajit Pawar’s NCP. As far as CM Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is concerned, it will also accept Thackeray.
The BJP has not yet revealed its full strategy. The political landscape in Maharashtra is expected to become clearer after the election of the national president later this month. Indications suggest that the new president might be from Maharashtra, with significant influence from the Sangh.
If the Sangh intervenes, it could facilitate a resolution between Thackeray and the BJP.
The BJP stands to benefit if Thackeray’s Shiv Sena contests the elections independently, which could potentially lead to a split in the NCP, currently part of the NDA. Meanwhile, MNS leader Raj Thackeray has surprised the BJP by announcing that his party will contest the elections alone. Consequently, significant political upheaval is anticipated in Maharashtra in the coming days.