The three major contenders, the Aam Aadmi Party, the BJP and the Congress have already donned the war paint as they gear up for an electoral confrontation early next year for the crucial Delhi Assembly elections. Arvind Kejirwal who had created history by winning the contest the last two times in an overwhelming manner, is hopeful of scoring a hattrick this time and if all goes well, he could seal his place as amongst the most influential leaders of the city. However, the journey to the third victory is never going to be easy. The Muslim votes have already shifted towards the Congress as the community by and large appears convinced that the AAP was the “B’’ team of the RSS and thus it would never support them at crucial times. The AAP has been trying for a Dalit outreach, if the recent announcements by Kejriwal have to go by, and in case this section also moves away, the AAP shall be in serious trouble.
The Dalits find Congress as an alternative and the BJP is also doing its best to woo this community, which could play a decisive role. Amongst the Dalits, there are questions which are there for AAP. Kejriwal has been preferring first time Dalit MLAs and has been ignoring the senior ones while distributing portfolios or positions. For instance, Vishesh Ravi and Rakhi Birla are on the sidelines and the berths which could have been theirs have gone to others. For the first time in many years, the Congress has been trying to make an impact on the political stage in Delhi and under Devendra Yadav, there has been tremendous activity witnessed in various Assembly segments. However, the problem with the grand old party is that it does not have a sound organizational structure and no new faces to inspire the voters. Most of its warriors are veterans and in the name of getting new entrants, some of them are busy promoting their sons and daughters. This at the expense of others who could perhaps be more acceptable.
The bottom line is that the Congress may do better in Muslim dominated constituencies, and could also emerge victorious in some of them as a result of a triangular fight. But it lacks a face that can be projected for the position of Chief Ministership who would be acceptable to all sections of society. The Sikhs have been backing the Congress but after the exit of Arvinder Singh Lovely, there is no prominent Sikh in the Congress ranks either. So far as Lovely is concerned, he seems to have disappeared in thin air and his presence is not visible on any BJP platform. When Sikhs in the BJP attacked Rahul Gandhi for saying what he said during his visit to the United States, Lovely did not utter a word. If he did, it was not reported. The BJP which has a robust organization also is facing the problem of having a credible face to be projected for the top position.
The Punjabis which were the backbone of the party are disillusioned since the Saffron Brigade in the past two decades, has chosen to ignore the community. The Delhi unit is headed by a Punjabi but he has to go a long way before he becomes the voice of this section, like leaders like Madan Lal Khurana, Vijay Kumar Malhotra and Kidar Nath Sahni were in the past. The same goes for the East Delhi MP, Harsh Malhotra, who is a minister in the Modi government but has a limited appeal.
The AAP has by and large been the preferred party of the Vaish community, many of whom despite being loyalists of the BJP, had backed Kejriwal in the past two elections. The BJP has prominent banias, Vijay Goel and Sudhanshu Mittal, but they are not in the scheme of things of the current Central leadership. The Congress also has people like Hari Shankar Gupta, who could have been a very good candidate, had he been given the ticket for Chandni Chowk during yje parliamentary elections in place of veteran Jai Prakash Aggarwal who entered the fray reluctantly after his son was not considered for the nomination. Ajay Maken, the party treasurer and former Minister at the Centre and in Delhi, is a prominent Punjabi face and belongs to one of the oldest political families of the capital. He has many enemies within the Delhi Congress and it is unlikely that he would like to return to local politics since he is now a member of Rajya Sabha from Karnataka. Subhash Chopra, former DPCC president has virtually retired from active politics and had last time backed his daughter to contest from Kalkaji, his former constituency. In the elections, the AAP would have the maximum advantage since it has Arvind Kejriwal as its leader whose popularity ratings continue to be more than that of any other leader in the capital.
The Delhi Chief Minister Atishi Singh has an appeal of her own but shall have to struggle to retain the Kalkaji constituency which she represents at this moment unless she makes some dramatic political announcements. The AAP and the Centre have been locked in a fight and the Lt. Governor has assumed the overriding role in taking decisions on key matters. Therefore, the only option for Kejriwal is to make statehood for Delhi as the primary issue of the polls and if he wins on the plank, the Centre may be compelled to rectify the situation by taking suitable action. The complexity of the 2025 battle is what makes the contest unpredictable though Kejriwal has a clear edge.