In spite of all the problems the Congress party is currently facing, it is thought that a victory in the Karnataka elections on May 10 could signal a turnaround in the party’s political fortunes, strengthening its position and its credentials as the main opponent of the BJP at the national level in advance of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The party hopes to gain momentum for later this year’s elections in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan by winning Karnataka. This will help the party recover from recent defeats in the northeastern states.
The Congress seems to be heading for the Karnataka polls so far on the strength of its local leadership and focusing on issues concerning the State, making corruption a central theme of its campaigning. This polls is also a prestige battle for the grand old party with a Kannadiga M Mallikarjun Kharge, who hails from Kalaburagi district, at its helm, as the national President.
However, the Congress also faces the challenge of keeping at bay the intense factionalism, especially between the camps of its two Chief Ministerial aspirants — Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar — who are often seen to be engaging in political one-upmanship for some time now.
Here is a SWOT analysis of the Congress in the home state of AICC President Kharge.
STRENGTHS: * Strong local leadership with D K Shivakumar (a Vokkaliga) and Siddaramaiah (a Kuruba who is considered to have a strong backing of AHINDA- a Kannada acronym for ‘Alpasankhyataru’ or minorities, ‘Hindulidavaru’ or backward classes, and ‘Dalitaru’ or Dalits) at the helm.
*Mallikarjun Kharge as AICC President and ability to consolidate Dalit votes in party’s favour.
*Focus on local issues and an aggressive “40% commission or corruption” campaign against the BJP government.
*Poll guarantees such as 200 units of free power to all households, Rs 2,000 monthly assistance to the woman head of every family,10 kg of rice free to every member of a BPL household, and Rs 3,000 per month to every graduate and Rs 1,500 per month to every diploma holder, as unemployment allowance.
WEAKNESSES: *Factionalism and infighting, especially between the camps of Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar.
*Disgruntlement among other senior leaders like G Parmeshwara, H K Patil, K H Muniyappa and others over being sidelined.
*Failurue to expand its votebase among Lingayat community *Not-so-strong central leadership that can keep the party united in case of revolt within.
OPPORTUNITIES: *Anti-incumbency against BJP government .
*Prospects of increasing vote-share on the back of a strong campaign against BJP’s over alleged corruption.
*Prospects of Lingayats (a community that largely supports BJP) unhappy on the issue of reservation, turning towards Congress, coupled with the party’s efforts to reach out to the community.
*Consolidating Minority votes.
