Iran has indicated that its retaliation against Israel for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh will be delayed, according to a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Ali Mohammad Naeini stated that the response could be prolonged and will not be immediate.
The escalation follows last month’s assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, which came shortly after the killing of Hezbollah commander Fu’ad Shukr in Beirut. Israel has been accused of being responsible for Shukr’s death, although it has not confirmed its role in Haniyeh’s assassination.
Iran, along with its allies Hezbollah and Hamas, has vowed retaliation, raising concerns of a potential regional conflict. However, Naeini’s comments suggest a shift towards a more calculated approach rather than immediate action. The IRGC spokesperson emphasized that Iran’s response would not repeat past operations and would be carefully planned.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations stated that its retaliation would be strategically timed to avoid impacting ongoing ceasefire talks. The Iranian foreign ministry has denied any direct link between its plans for retaliation and the ceasefire negotiations.
Former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaee has indicated that Iran’s response will be “very calculated” and timed to maximize impact without escalating tensions further. He criticized the US and Israel for their role in prolonging the Gaza conflict.
Dina Esfandiary from the International Crisis Group noted that while Iran’s statements might suggest a delay in retaliation, the country’s domestic and international strategies are closely tied to the outcome of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. The response could become more imminent if negotiations fail.
Recent talks in Doha have seen progress, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reporting that Israel has agreed to a proposal to address ceasefire gaps. The next critical step is for Hamas to agree to the same terms.
Officials speculate that Iran and Hezbollah might be cautious of triggering a broader conflict, potentially delaying their planned retaliation.