US President Donald Trump has warned India of a 25 per cent tariff over Russian oil purchases, but also hinted he may not enforce the penalty. His remarks came as India is yet to confirm any halt in buying Russian crude. Washington had earlier announced a 25 per cent duty on Indian goods last month, with an additional 25 per cent duty scheduled for August 27. If fully applied, India would face a 50 per cent tariff, the highest level along with Brazil.
Trump told Fox News that Russian President Vladimir Putin had “lost an oil client” in India, claiming the country once took nearly 40 per cent of Russia’s crude. He added, “If I have to do it, I’ll do it. Maybe I won’t have to do it.” His statement showed both pressure and flexibility, leaving the final move unclear.
India Pushes Back
India strongly condemned the tariff hikes, calling them “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.” PM Narendra Modi said India would not bow to economic pressure. The move threatens sectors such as textiles, marine products, and leather, all of which depend on US markets.
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A Bloomberg report suggested India’s state-owned refiners stopped buying Russian crude after Trump’s action. However, Indian Oil Corporation chairman AS Sahney said India had not halted purchases and continued to buy only on economic grounds. The mixed signals added to the uncertainty over India’s actual policy.
Rising Economic Costs
The tariff fight comes as India faces the risk of a sharp rise in its energy bill. A State Bank of India report estimated that stopping Russian crude could add USD 9 billion to this year’s import costs and USD 12 billion next year.
Before the Ukraine war, India’s top oil suppliers were Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Experts say New Delhi may now have to shift back to those suppliers, though Russian oil is still available at discounted rates.
Global Backlash
Russia and China have slammed Trump’s tariff escalation, accusing him of using trade as a weapon. They said the US move violates international rules. The European Union’s sanctions on Moscow already weakened Russian oil sales, and India had emerged as Russia’s biggest buyer since 2022. Now, even that link looks uncertain.
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Peace, Trade, and Pressure
The US has threatened secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil unless the Ukraine war ends. India and China are Moscow’s biggest customers, and Trump’s tariff threat signals Washington’s readiness to tighten pressure. However, his own words — “maybe I won’t have to do it” — show the risks of overreach.
Finding a balance between global politics and energy security is a challenge for India. trump wants to know if tariffs by themselves can affect decisions in India, and the answer remains uncertain, the implications for trade, diplomacy, and stability are substantial.
