Donald Trump has shifted his focus from confronting China to targeting India. After pressuring U.S. allies and partners worldwide with tariffs, he now treats New Delhi as his main economic rival. In doing so, Trump has broken a bipartisan consensus of over two decades in Washington across five administrations that supported a strong India as being in America’s interest. Instead, his policies appear hostile, threatening to unravel the hard-earned trust between the two nations.
Trust Built Over 25 Years at Risk
For more than 25 years, India and the U.S. worked to strengthen a strategic partnership. That progress is now under strain. Driven by personal grudges rather than strategy, Trump has taken a unilateral approach, punishing India for refusing to fall in line with U.S. demands. His administration expects complete compliance from the Modi government on trade, energy, and foreign policy.
The tension escalated after India rejected Trump’s claim that he engineered the post-Operation Sindoor ceasefire and resisted his pressure during trade talks. India’s refusal to bend to last-minute demands bruised Trump’s ego, leading to his current aggressive stance.
Energy Ties with Russia Trigger Tariffs
India has continued purchasing Russian oil to safeguard its energy security, while maintaining historical ties with Moscow. Trump responded with insults and imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports among the highest globally. He also threatened to expand tariffs to pharmaceutical products. Meanwhile, members of his administration have openly criticized India.
The Cost of Strategic Autonomy
India has always emphasized “strategic autonomy” in its foreign policy resisting great-power rivalries, avoiding formal alliances, and pursuing pragmatic engagements to protect sovereignty. From Nehru’s non-alignment to Modi’s multi-alignment, the principle has guided Indian diplomacy.
But today, the price of autonomy is rising. Unlike during peacetime, when U.S. hegemony guaranteed stability, the current multipolar order is filled with conflict and uncertainty. Trump’s trade wars and reliance on hard power expose how costly independence can be for a middle power like India.
Dependence on Critical Sectors
India’s autonomy is limited because it still depends on foreign powers in vital areas. The country imports energy technology, fighter jet engines, solar panels, rare earths, and digital infrastructure. While India is investing in semiconductor fabrication, it lacks its own Big Tech firms, social media platforms, or sovereign cloud systems.
Microsoft’s recent suspension of services to Nyara Energy—citing European sanctions—showed how vulnerable India remains. Moves like this highlight the risks of depending on foreign technology, which can affect national security.
Trump’s Officials Escalate Accusations
The situation worsened when White House trade adviser Peter Navarro accused India of “laundering Russian oil” and even blamed it for the deaths of “more than 300,000 soldiers and civilians” in the Ukraine war. His remarks ignored the fact that China is Russia’s biggest oil buyer and that the European Union continues to import Russian natural gas.
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia earned €923 billion from fossil fuel exports since the Ukraine invasion. Of this, the EU paid €212 billion, China over €200 billion, and India €121 billion. In 2024, EU-Russia trade was worth €67.5 billion, almost the same as India’s $68.7 billion trade with Russia. The U.S. itself continues to buy Russian fertilizers and chemicals.
Double Standards on Russian Oil
Trump’s administration has shown double standards. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that China’s purchase of Russian oil helps “stabilise the global energy market,” while India’s purchases supposedly “fuel Putin’s war.” Ironically, the Biden administration earlier encouraged India to buy price-capped Russian oil, which Trump now condemns.
The ‘Law of the Fish’ in Global Politics
After his Alaska meeting with Putin, Trump dropped demands for a ceasefire and sanctions, signaling what Indian thinkers call Matsya Nyaya—“the law of the fish,” where the strong prey on the weak. Trump even told Zelenskyy to accept peace by conceding Crimea and abandoning NATO ambitions, reasoning that “Russia is a very big power, and they’re not.”
At the same time, Trump softened his stance on China. When Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs of 125% against his 145% levy, Trump backed down and suspended tariffs. He now seeks a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping to negotiate a trade deal. His contrasting treatment of China and India highlights his belief that China deserves respect while India can be pressured without consequences.
India’s Digital Strengths and Weaknesses
Despite setbacks, India has made progress in digital sovereignty. The Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has reduced dependence on foreign payment systems like Visa and Mastercard. RuPay, India’s card network, now handles a growing share of digital payments. According to TechCrunch, “RuPay processed Rs 638 billion ($7.43 billion) in UPI credit card transactions in the first seven months of FY2025, nearly double from a year earlier,” capturing 28% of the credit card market.
This success underscores how India can build resilience by creating homegrown platforms. However, the country still lacks its own Big Tech, AI ecosystems, and sovereign social media platforms. Without them, India risks remaining a “digital colony” vulnerable to foreign influence.
The Road Ahead
Prime Minister Modi recently chaired a high-level meeting on “next-generation economic reforms” and announced plans to simplify GST to encourage growth. But experts argue that India must go further building domestic capacity in AI, robotics, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure to truly achieve Atmanirbharta (self-reliance).
India’s young population and growing economy provide a strong foundation. Yet to exercise true strategic autonomy, India must reduce foreign dependencies, protect itself from sanctions, and strengthen its bargaining position in global power politics.
