US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick discusses trade relations with India amid rising tensions. [Photo Source: Reuters]
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said that India is expected to return to the negotiating table with President Donald Trump within the next month or two. He suggested that India will try to resolve the ongoing trade tensions and work toward a deal. Lutnick described India as the “vowel” between Russia and China in the BRICS grouping, highlighting its strategic position.
“I think yes, in a month or two months, I think India is going to be at the table, and they're going to say they're sorry, and they're going to try to make a deal with Donald Trump,” Lutnick told Bloomberg in an interview. He added, “And it will be on Donald Trump's desk how he wants to deal with (Narendra) Modi, and we leave that to him. That's why he's the President.”
The Trump administration’s steep tariffs on Indian goods have created significant challenges for exporters. Lutnick warned that India must choose between supporting the United States and aligning with Russia and China, especially given its increasing imports of Russian crude. “Either support the dollar, support the United States of America, support your biggest client, who is the American consumer, or I guess you're going to pay a 50% tariff. And let's see how long this lasts,” he said.
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Industry experts say that nearly 55% of Indian shipments to the United States, valued at around $48 billion, now face a cost disadvantage compared with competitors from Vietnam, China, and Bangladesh. These tariffs have placed pressure on sectors like textiles, jewellery, and seafood, which heavily rely on the American market.
India has maintained that its oil imports from Russia are driven by energy security and market factors. Since Western sanctions on Moscow in February 2022, India has turned to discounted Russian crude to meet domestic demand.
Lutnick criticized this, noting that India’s share of Russian crude imports jumped from less than 2% to 40% since the conflict began.
Lutnick said that, despite public bravado, India will eventually feel domestic pressure to negotiate. “So I think what happens is it's all bravado, because you think it feels good to fight with the biggest client in the world, but eventually your businesses are going to say you've got to stop this and go make a deal with America,” he explained.
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He added that the US, with its $30 trillion economy, remains the largest consumer market in the world, and other countries ultimately need to align with American demand to sustain trade relationships.
The next few months will be critical for India-US trade relations. The discussions, if they take place as Lutnick predicts, could ease tensions and address the steep tariffs that have affected Indian exporters.
How India navigates this balancing act—between the US and the BRICS alignment with Russia and China—will have long-term consequences for its trade and economic strategy.
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