New Delhi: Elections in five states—including West Bengal—are taking place at a time when a fierce war is raging in West Asia. The conflict is now approaching its third week. The repercussions of this war are being felt across the entire world, including India. There has been a scramble regarding LPG gas cylinders, and crude oil prices have doubled within a single month. The impact is already becoming visible in neighboring countries; in Sri Lanka, government offices are now open for only three days a week, while Pakistan has imposed restrictions on a wide range of commodities. Amidst all this, however, everything currently remains normal in India. While a crisis regarding LPG did emerge, the government has been successful in managing it. The question now arises: will the issue of gas and oil prices have any bearing on the elections in these five states? The opposition is certainly attempting to turn it into an election issue, launching attacks on the government both inside and outside Parliament. Yet, thus far, there has been no indication that the government is particularly concerned.
Elections are scheduled for next month in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry, alongside West Bengal. In India, state elections take place somewhere or the other every six months. Just a few months after the elections scheduled for April, polls are set to be held in several other states—including Uttar Pradesh, often regarded as a “Mini-India.” It is through Uttar Pradesh that the true path to the seat of power in Delhi is paved; in other words, winning UP brings one significantly closer to securing the throne in Delhi. Even after April, several other highly crucial elections are slated to take place across India. Given the current trajectory of the conflict, neither the United States nor Iran appears willing to back down. Meanwhile, Israel continues to launch relentless attacks on Iran. The entire world remains apprehensive regarding this fierce war in West Asia, primarily because the scope of the conflict continues to expand. Iran has largely targeted those nations possessing significant reserves of gas and oil, resulting in a direct impact on several countries, including India. According to a report, India is purchasing crude oil in March at a price double that of February. India imports 88% of its total oil requirements. According to a report by the PPAC, India purchased crude oil in January at a price of $63.08 per barrel. In February, this figure rose to $69.01 per barrel. In March, the price initially reached $108.01, and India is now purchasing crude oil at a price of $142.69 per barrel. Within the month of March alone, the price has surged directly from $85.24 to $142.69 per barrel. It is difficult to predict where it will head next; it could potentially reach $200 per barrel within March itself. These would be alarming circumstances. Under these conditions, the prices of petrol and diesel could skyrocket. The rise in oil prices will have a direct impact on the cost of essential commodities. It is difficult to say how high inflation will climb. According to the report, a mere $18 increase in the price of a barrel of oil implies that India’s annual import bill could rise by ₹15,000 crore. With an increase of $69—that is, with the price reaching $142 per barrel—the import bill would surge by approximately ₹1.05 lakh crore annually. That situation has all but arrived. According to a report by Global Petrol Prices, petrol prices have risen in 85 countries across the world. LPG prices have already increased in the wake of the conflict involving Iran. The inflation rate could climb above 7.8%, and India’s economic growth rate could witness a decline of 1 to 2 percent. Simply put, inflation is set to rise rapidly. The common man, who currently purchases goods worth 1,000 rupees, could face a direct price hike of 10 to 15 percent. Inflation has historically been a significant issue in Indian elections. However, the Modi government appears to have successfully managed the situation thus far. Regardless of the questions raised by the opposition, India’s foreign policy is moving in the right direction. Although India may not be making overt statements, the impact of its diplomacy is evident—from the successful arrival of oil and gas tankers from Iran to the continued purchase of oil from Russia. Everything seems to be on track. Nevertheless, oil prices will inevitably have to be raised. As soon as oil prices rise, inflation will follow, and the opposition will undoubtedly turn this into an election issue.
The question now is whether inflation will actually impact the elections. While changing electoral patterns suggest it will have some influence, that impact is unlikely to be substantial. This is because the key issues dominating elections have shifted. Take West Bengal, for instance: the ruling party, the TMC, is not dwelling on economic issues, as doing so would inevitably turn the spotlight—and the criticism—back onto itself. Consequently, issues such as illegal immigration and Hindu-Muslim communal dynamics appear to be emerging as the primary election themes. In Kerala, there is currently virtually no discussion regarding inflation between the Congress and the Left parties. In Assam, the ruling BJP is exceptionally strong, while the Congress party’s organizational structure has largely disintegrated. In Tamil Nadu, the focus remains on local-specific issues. As things stand, it appears unlikely that the fierce conflict unfolding in West Asia will feature prominently in the election discourse across these five states. However, it could certainly impact future elections—though such an impact would likely materialize only if the conflict drags on for an extended period. It is virtually certain that the government will, without fail, raise oil prices; there is simply no viable alternative. The only remaining question is the extent to which oil prices will rise in April, and how much further they will climb thereafter. This specific window of time presents the government with its best opportunity to implement price hikes, as it allows sufficient time to stabilize the situation and bring matters under control before the next round of state elections, scheduled for early next year. One can only hope that the conflict concludes swiftly; should it persist, India will find itself confronting a formidable set of challenges, compelling the government to make difficult and decisive choices. Ultimately, it now depends on the United States and Iran—specifically, which of the two nations chooses to back down first.
