Preventing cross-voting will be the Congress’s principal challenge in next month’s Rajya Sabha elections. The party must not only retain all winnable seats but also navigate fraught candidate selection, having paid a price last time for fielding outsiders in Himachal Pradesh and Haryana.
The immediate focus is on Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Chhattisgarh. The Congress has the numbers to win one seat each in all three states, but the BJP could attempt to upset the arithmetic. Retaining these seats is crucial, as any setback could endanger the Congress’s claim to the post of Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha.
The party currently holds 27 seats. A loss of three would reduce its tally to 25 — the minimum required to retain the LoP position. Beyond these states, prospects appear limited. In Telangana, the Congress is expected to secure two seats, but there is little hope in Assam, Odisha, West Bengal, Maharashtra or Bihar. Rajni Patil is set to lose her seat in Maharashtra. The party is also expected to lose one seat each in Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, which it hopes to offset through gains in Haryana and Himachal Pradesh.
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is bargaining for a Rajya Sabha seat ahead of Assembly elections, though this may require dropping its demand for a share in government.
The BJP’s broader strategy is seen as weakening the Congress numerically to force it to forfeit the LoP post. It may field additional candidates in Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Chhattisgarh to engineer defeats.
Such an outcome would not only threaten the LoP position but also deepen instability in Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress government is already grappling with factionalism.
In Himachal Pradesh, internal divisions cost the party dearly in 2024 despite having 40 MLAs against the BJP’s 25, when Abhishek Manu Singhvi lost the Rajya Sabha election. The current strength stands at 40 Congress MLAs to the BJP’s 28. With Assembly polls due next year and factional tensions at their peak, ticket allocation has become contentious. Former state president Pratibha Singh and Anand Sharma are both seeking nomination. Rivalry between Pratibha Singh and Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu is well known, and any decision could aggravate divisions. The BJP is reportedly reaching out to disgruntled legislators.
Haryana presents a similar challenge. Rahul Gandhi’s endorsement of former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda following the Assembly election defeat has revived factional tensions. Despite three consecutive Assembly losses and two Rajya Sabha setbacks under Hooda’s leadership, he was reappointed Leader of the Opposition in the state. His renewed prominence has unsettled other senior leaders, including Kumari Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala. Though the Congress has the numbers to win a seat, crossvoting remains a risk.
In Chhattisgarh, the Congress is likely to secure only one seat. The leadership is keen to renominate K.T.S. Tulsi, but local aspirants are pressing their claims. The tension between fielding established figures and accommodating state leaders persists across states. While Abhishek Manu Singhvi is expected to return from Telangana, balancing competing ambitions will test the high command.
With a long list of hopefuls — including Yogendra Yadav, Ashok Tanwar, Kanhaiya Kumar, Alka Lamba, Pawan Khera, Jairam Ramesh and Supriya Shrinate — the coming weeks will be critical. Preventing cross-voting and managing internal dissent may well determine whether the Congress can hold its ground in the Rajya Sabha.