BJP vote share set to increase in Tamil Nadu, say Political Analysts

Tamil Nadu is gearing up for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is currently in seat-sharing talks with various parties.
As known, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has broken off its alliance with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and has decided to go it alone. While the DMK is confident that they will sweep Lok Sabha elections in the state this time around too with their alliance partners, the BJP is set to gain as well.

Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai has been on his ‘En Mann, En Makkal’ padayatra since July last year has seen him cover Tamil Nadu district by district on foot with crowds thronging every meeting of his.

Now, political analysts state that his grassroots campaign has worked and the vote share of the BJP will increase this time in Lok Sabha elections. Political analyst Prashant Kishor stated in a recent TV interview that BJP vote share could get into the double digit figure and capture from 7 per cent to 15 per cent of the vote share in the upcoming elections.
If K Annamalai is adopting a grassroots strategy at one level to strengthen the party, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made numerous visits to the south state to give it national focus. PM Modi’s recent visit to Rameswaram in connection with the ‘pran pathishta’ of the Ayodhya Temple created a lot of buzz in Tamil Nadu. The efforts of the leadership at both the state level and national level seem to be working in the saffron party’s favour.

Political analyst Bharath K, who has been covering Tamil Nadu politics for a while now, agrees with Kishor’s opinion, stating, “There is definitely strong momentum for the BJP now thanks to K Annamalai and his padayatra. The BJP vote share could go into the double digits for sure. Also, PM Modi has made numerous visits to Tamil Nadu in the last year – this has given the party more visibility. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP vote share was just 3.9%. This time around there will definitely be an upward surge.”

With charismatic political leaders like Amma J Jayalalithaa and Kalaignar Karunanidhi no longer around, there exists a clear vacuum in the political sphere in Tamil Nadu. Voters seem to be looking for a strong leader especially in the younger crop and this is where BJP’s Annamalai and Tamil star Vijay stand to gain.

Right now, the INDIA alliance is already shaky though the DMK is confident of a sweep in Tamil Nadu. Union Minister of State L Murugan told reporters on January 29 that the INDIA bloc was a “confused alliance” and people were now supporting the BJP in Tamil Nadu. He claimed that some political parties in TN were trying to quit the INDIA alliance as well. Senior BJP leader Basavaraj Bommai has also declared that the south states will deliver surprising results in Lok Sabha 2024. He told the media, “There is a pro-BJP and pro- Modi wave from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. This time the unexpected result is expected from South India in the upcoming parliamentary polls.”

With the AIADMK clear that it will no longer have any truck with the BJP, some of its vote share could move to the BJP.
With the DMK plagued by allegations of corruption and mismanagement, some of its vote share could also shift to the saffron party. If the BJP gains vote share in the Lok Sabha and enters the double digit figure, then all eyes will be on the 2026 Assembly elections which could become a game changer given that Tamil star Vijay is also launching his political party.