As Assam prepares for the 2026 Assembly elections in March-April, the political fight is clearly divided between the ruling NDA and a divided Opposition. A total of 126 seats are at stake, reshaped after the 2023 delimitation exercise. This time, seat sharing has become the main issue, especially for alliances.
The NDA, led by the BJP, is showing confidence and unity. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said on February 22 that seat-sharing talks among alliance partners are a “done deal.” The NDA includes the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). Smaller parties like Rabha Hasong Joutha Sangram Samiti and Janashakti Party are also part of the alliance.
The entry of BPF has strengthened the NDA in Bodo areas after its strong performance in the Bodoland Territorial Council polls. Sarma said the alliance already knows “who will contest where” and there are no disputes left. Talks with AGP were completed by late January. BJP state president Dilip Saikia also said that all issues were settled in a friendly manner.
In the 2021 elections, the NDA won with just a 1% vote share advantage but secured a 25-seat majority. After delimitation, many believe the alliance is in a stronger position. Opinion polls suggest the NDA may win 65 to 75 seats, helped by development campaigns and new candidates to manage anti-incumbency.
On the other hand, the Opposition INDIA bloc, led by the Congress, is facing serious problems over seat sharing. Congress plans to contest 100 seats and leave the rest to its allies such as Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), CPI(M), CPI and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC).
However, disagreements have slowed talks. Raijor Dal leader Akhil Gogoi is demanding at least 12 to 15 seats, including minority-dominated constituencies. So far, Raijor Dal has reportedly been offered only four seats. A proposed formula gives Congress 100 seats, Raijor Dal 11-15, AJP 8, APHLC 2-4 and Left parties 2 seats. But nothing has been finalized.
Congress has also ruled out an alliance with AIUDF, calling it “communal.” This decision could split votes in 25 Muslim-majority seats.
The situation became more serious after former Assam Congress chief Bhupen Borah joined the BJP on February 22. He accused Congress leaders of making “anti-Assam” remarks and weakening alliances. He also alleged that party leaders blocked a CPI(ML) candidate during the 2024 bypolls. His exit is being compared to the 2015 defections that badly affected Congress.
Though Priyanka Gandhi recently visited Assam to boost party morale, internal differences continue. Seat-sharing talks under CLP leader Debabrata Saikia are still unresolved.
The NDA’s unity gives it an early advantage in campaigning. In contrast, the Opposition risks further division if disputes continue. With the Election Commission’s announcement expected soon, the Opposition has little time left to settle its differences.
