Tamil Nadu’s political scene is shifting after the tragic stampede at actor-politician Vijay’s Karur rally, which killed 41 people. Major parties have used the tragedy as a pretext to court Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) ahead of the 2026 assembly elections, which could change the nature of the opposition’s struggle against the incumbent DMK.
Why is TVK Suddenly a Pivot for Alliances?
Vijay’s TVK represents a vast, untested vote bank built from his massive fan following. Both the BJP and its ally, the AIADMK, see the post-stampede period as a critical window to bring the fledgling party into their fold. The BJP is actively reaching out to incorporate TVK into the NDA. Concurrently, the Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS)-led AIADMK is reconsidering its own choices with Vijay, an alliance it had contemplated before to re-joining the NDA in April. A key concern for the BJP is ensuring the AIADMK does not exit their alliance to partner with TVK instead.
What Are the Historical Hurdles to an Alliance?
Vijay’s demands, which allegedly included a power-sharing system and a rotating chief minister role for the first half of a five-year term, caused previous negotiations between the AIADMK and TVK to break down. These conditions were unacceptable to the AIADMK. For Vijay, aligning with the BJP presents an ideological contradiction. An agreement might harm his credibility because his entire political brand has been based on impassioned, dramatic speeches in which he positions himself as an alternative to the BJP’s worldview.
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How Has the Political Rhetoric Shifted After the Tragedy?
The public statements from key players reveal a strategic softening of stance. While Vijay has been ruthless in his criticism of the DMK and BJP, he has refrained from directly attacking AIADMK’s EPS. Vijay has been completely cleared by EPS of any responsibility for the Karur stampede, while the ruling DMK is the only one blamed for crowd control. This mutual restraint shows that there is still room for settlement, even in light of a court ruling that limited rallies and therefore impacted EPS.
What is Vijay’s Preferred Path Forward?
Advisors close to Vijay have consistently advocated for TVK to contest the elections alone, leveraging smaller parties to form a coalition government if successful. “There is no alliance conversation with anyone currently,” said a TVK official, reaffirming this autonomous position. But this approach is being put to the test by the tremendous pressure that followed the tragedy and the persistent outreach from major parties. A top leader of the AIADMK said, “Anything is possible in politics.”
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What is the Broader Political Fallout?
The stampede has become a focal point for all parties. The BJP sent a high-profile delegation to Karur, using the event to criticize the DMK government. According to political analyst Maalan Narayanan, “All parties are using this tragedy as an opportunity.” He suggests that while the opposition’s strategy of blaming the state and supporting Vijay may backfire, the ultimate goal for the BJP and AIADMK is to consolidate anti-DMK votes. For now, joining the NDA may not be an option for Vijay, but his future campaign rhetoric will be closely watched for signs of a softer approach.
