Many, in both India and Canada, and even world-wide are now familiar with the fact that tensions between India and Canada have degenerated to worrying levels. Less certain are the specific casualties and serious dangers ahead, potentially from this. Or how to de-escalate.
Tensions are playing out, largely governed by Trudeau’s and Ottawa’s overall permissive positionings, giving Khalistan separatist activists and extremists more space and confidence to operate in, and press their views in Canada with seemingly few redlines, there.
More broadly, this is undermining India’s national sovereignty and security, but also Canada’s too, by giving these extremist elements or their supporters too much of a safe haven or feeling of. For a so-called peaceful country, advertising itself as a sane and safe nation, Ottawa is significantly eroding that image.That is by surrendering too much control, politically and in terms of law and order to these extremist and attached groups.
This includes on important urban and diplomat quarter areas with Indian embassies and consulates, known as high commissions.They have been threatened by such over-the-top activists. So casualty, one may be the war on terrorism by India and globally, broadly speaking. Casualty, two is Indian sovereignty, including those of its diplomats and missions.
Now, on another casualty of importance Some of these movements and current political tensions between the two countries are even being exploited by deadly international gangsters. New Delhi had warned Canada on this. But to what avail? So the next casualty is on crime in Canada of a type that washes back onto Indians, where many of these, pro-separatist Khalistan gangs have connections.
Then, not to forget is the discriminating and hateful sloganeering by extremists that push for Hindus, including full Canadian citizens, telling them they are not wanted and should leave the country, surely threatening hate crimes? So Canada appears softer on international crime, not only terrorism domestically. It all does not make an inviting international image, another potential casualty. However, let us not go overboard. Canada is still one of the more peaceful countries. But, let us say, diplomatically, with a worrisome trend line.
So the atmosphere even for most Indian- Canadians in their own country has become more tense. But this is not fully in parallel to, though instructive, from learning about the disgusting racially motivated incidents against too many East Asian Americans who seem to have got unfairly besmirched because of the rising bilateral tensions between Washington and Beijing, at least in previous, recent years. Fortunately, so far this is nowhere the case, yet in Canada with its huge Indian diaspora and student population.
But could such racism become a bigger issue if India-Canada bilateral tensions were to descend even much lower? Hopefully not but something to keep in mind. Such a negative atmosphere developing is not likely helpful for positive immigration, another potential casualty.
Canada, given its aging demographics, high government debt, low growth and productivity levels needs significant immigration. Indeed, Canada needs to be encouraging a atmosphere such that huge numbers of Indians keep studying in the many globally, fairly highly ranked Canadian universities.
And Ottawa should make an atmosphere so existing Indian students in Canada feel as comfortable as they should as a high number of open-minded Canadians are doing so and university administrations, as well. It is more important just than the billion dollars they bring into the Canadian economy. Hello?
But if India-Canadian relations deteriorate more with Trudeau attacking India on rights issues further, or by his NGO and other proxies, there would be serious increased risks. That is from opportunistic globalists like billionaire, George Soros that have never liked India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi.
This includes over his independent, pro-India stand and on geopolitics. These powerful foes to India might turn Trudeau and Ottawa into their “main” proxy against India.
And instead of a major dust up, Trudeau could by incompetence, or as a willing useful idiot lead more forces that undermine the positive, hard-earned relations India has with Washington on regional security After all Canada is the US’s largest trade partner and has serious concerns with any terrorism issues in its neighbor.
The good news, though is while Washington wants Canada, its influential neighbor, to settle up with India and get back to good relations, they will not push India to cave into Ottawa. Nor over Khalistan, will they sacrifice positive American relations with this emerging economic superpower and geopolitical shield against Chinese incursions. And for New Delhi, with the relatively low levels of trade and investment with Ottawa, it has little economically to lose by Ottawa going mad against it.
What to do then? Ottawa has to better realize that the only real big power it can use to change the dynamic, Washington has bigger issues to fry. Ottawa is as well at risk of being “shut out” not only in the huge Chinese market but now, even the faster growing 1,4 billion consumer India market. Remember, Xi Jinping, China’s leader has already rebuked Trudeau publicly for being “insincere”. Prime Minister Modi is politer about saying the same. But his external affairs minister S. Jaishankar has represented his view enough on Khalistan by strong clear actions on his PM’s behalf and just about for all Indians.
So in terms of realism, if I were Trudeau, I would take the initiative. So what to say from him to remedy the situation for or a start: “There has been a misunderstanding. And that of course, both India and Canada are against extra-judicial killings including on their territories, in principle. And Canada and India are both dedicated democracies to free speech, rule of international law and against hatred and terrorism. That it is important that great civilizations better understand each other and their great contributions to peace. For Canada, be it from Nobel Peace prize winner and UN rights declaration drafter, respectively of Canadians Prime Minister Lester Pearson and John Peters Humphrey. Or from India, with the immense stature of Mahatma Gandhi. That their two great Commonwealth countries look forward to working together, as they usually have for peace, prosperity and democracy both are and have been dedicated to.”
Can Trudeau be big enough to say that, I am not sure. But if he can and India is willing to accept such a peace offering, both India and Canada can both raise their geopolitical statuses, a win, win. Who knows what is possible?
Hopefully, at least there can be a near return to the usual good relationship between the two countries. One that most Canadians and Indians who are of good will would like to see happen. But Trudeau will have to better crackdown, as well on these Khalistan gangsters and extremists at the same time of a peace offering to New Delhi.
Peter Dash was the lead researcher on Canada’s international image, decades ago, as a federal civil servant.It was a strategy which received high recognition from the Canadian Privy Council office.
